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Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph (Read 35564 times)
Paste User Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:56am
Mark & Quote Quote 

...

Larry Sinclair


As noted earlier on the blog, Larry Sinclair, who claims (thus far without evidence) to have used cocaine with, and performed fellatio on, Barack Obama in 1999 has accepted a $100,000 polygraph challenge from one-time Internet pornographer Dan Parisi, who runs the website WhiteHouse.com. Sinclair is to be polygraphed on Tuesday, 26 February 2008 by an as-yet-unnamed polygrapher in or near New York City. Political blog BigHeadDC reports that Sinclair, who stands to make $100,000 if he passes the polygraph,  "is expected to hold a press conference in the coming days."

Parisi avers that the polygrapher performing the services is "a renowned expert who has been involved in quite a few high-profile cases," and that the results will be "verified by a second renowned expert."

Update:
I have posted to YouTube the following commentary on why -- pass or fail -- Mr. Sinclair's polygraph results will be evidence of nothing:

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« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2008 at 5:00am by George W. Maschke »  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #1 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:07pm
Mark & Quote Quote 
George,

you wrote: "pass or fail -- Mr. Sinclair's polygraph results will be evidence of nothing"

then why post this information?

If he fails, this board (or he) will claim he told the complete truth and must be one of the numerous false positives resulting from the polygraph process.  This of course will be proof that polygraph doesn't work.

If he passes, he will most assuredly be a false negative, simply lucked out or another "success" of TLBTLD...

Sackett
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #2 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:11pm
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Sackett,

I'm not suggesting for a minute, as you suggest, that whatever the result of Mr. Sinclair's polygraph examination, it will be wrong. My point (well-known to longtime readers of AntiPolygraph.org) is that because polygraph testing has no scientific basis, because it's inherently biased against the truthful, and because outcomes can be easily manipulated through the use of simple countermeasures, the results of Mr. Sinclair's polygraph test will provide no reliable evidence regarding his veracity.
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #3 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:25pm
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George,

you wrote, "I'm not suggesting for a minute, as you suggest, that whatever the result of Mr. Sinclair's polygraph examination, it will be wrong."

No, you stated it will be "evidence of nothing."

Further, you wrote: "...polygraph testing has no scientific basis, because it's inherently biased against the truthful, and because outcomes can be easily manipulated through the use of simple countermeasures..."

I know this was your opinion as I AM a "longtime reader" and I am aware of your promotion of your (free) book. I was just wondering, where exactly was that opinion/finding published in the NAS study which your followers quote so frequently as the foundation of their core beliefs?

Sackett
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #4 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:41pm
Mark & Quote Quote 
sackett wrote on Feb 22nd, 2008 at 6:25pm:
George,

you wrote, "I'm not suggesting for a minute, as you suggest, that whatever the result of Mr. Sinclair's polygraph examination, it will be wrong."

No, you stated it will be "evidence of nothing."


Precisely. The point I'm trying to make is that no inferences regarding his truthfulness can be safely drawn from his polygraph results, however they may turn out.

My concern is that if Mr. Sinclair passes (the outcome that would also provide the greatest publicity boost for Dan Parisi and WhiteHouse.com), Barack Obama's detractors will seize on it to bolster the credibility of Sinclair's claims.

Conversely, if Mr. Sinclair fails, Mr. Obama's supporters might predictably welcome this result as confirmation that Larry Sinclair is a liar.

But because of the unreliability of polygraphy, neither conclusion is warranted.

Quote:
Further, you wrote:  "...polygraph testing has no scientific basis, because it's inherently biased against the truthful, and because outcomes can be easily manipulated through the use of simple countermeasures..."

I know this was your opinion as I AM a "longtime reader" and I am aware of your promotion of your (free) book.  I was just wondering, where exactly was that opinion/finding published in the NAS study which your followers quote so frequently as the foundation of their core beliefs?

Sackett


For documentation of my assertions regarding the scientific status of polygraphy, see Chapter 1 of The Lie Behind the Lie Detector.
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #5 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 8:18pm
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Anon,

As I told you earlier in a PM, if what you say happened, actually happened, then the examiner did not render an opinion as it would have been impossible to do so. And if you were attacked, as you claim, I would expect you would be eager to report the assault to the police. Wink

As for Mr Sinclair, I think the test results, assuming he actually goes through with the test, will be interesting.  It appears to be a specific issue test which historically have a high degree of accuracy.  Not perfect and not 100%, but very accurate.
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #6 - Feb 22nd, 2008 at 10:16pm
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Well all,

apparently the polygraph folks couldn't wait and they conducted Sinclair's testing today. Information to be posted on whitehouse.com on Monday or Tuesday.

The fall-out will sure be interesting, regardless...


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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #7 - Feb 23rd, 2008 at 2:07am
Mark & Quote Quote 
yankeedog wrote on Feb 22nd, 2008 at 8:18pm:
As for Mr Sinclair, I think the test results, assuming he actually goes through with the test, will be interesting.  It appears to be a specific issue test which historically have a high degree of accuracy.  Not perfect and not 100%, but very accurate.


Some nine decades after William Moulton Marston (whom the FBI considered a phony and a crackpot) unveiled his lie test, the lie detector has yet to be proven through peer-reviewed research to reliably detect deception at better-than-chance levels under field conditions. Because the procedure lacks both standardization and scientific control, its sensitivity and specificity are unspecifiable.
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George W. Maschke
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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A Reply from Larry Sinclair
Reply #8 - Feb 23rd, 2008 at 5:19am
Mark & Quote Quote 
I posted a comment to Larry Sinclair's YouTube video OBAMA'S LIMO SEX & DRUG PARTY calling attention to my video commentary, and received a prompt reply from Mr. Sinclair (larrysinclair0926):

...


It seems from other of Mr. Sinclair's YouTube posts that his polygraph was actually conducted not in New York City, but in Los Angeles. While I  can't tell who conducted the polygraph (though it sounds like something up Ed Gelb's alley), Mr. Sinclair indicated that the results were going to be reviewed by an expert on polygraph countermeasures in Salt Lake City whose name he states is "Gordon (something)." The obvious inference is that he's referring to Gordon H. Barland (a registered user and occasional poster on these boards):

...
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« Last Edit: Feb 23rd, 2008 at 7:21am by George W. Maschke »  

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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Larry Sinclair Says He "Did Not Fail" Polygraph
Reply #9 - Feb 23rd, 2008 at 7:33am
Mark & Quote Quote 
In yet another YouTube comment made last night, Mr. Sinclair states that he "did not fail" the polygraph:

...
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Larry Sinclair Was Polygraphed by a Phony Ph.D.
Reply #10 - Feb 23rd, 2008 at 3:32pm
Mark & Quote Quote 
A photograph posted to WhiteHouse.com reveals that the polygraph operator who conducted the lie detector "testing" of Larry Sinclair is indeed "Dr." Ed Gelb of Los Angeles, whom AntiPolygraph.org has exposed as a phony Ph.D. Gelb, a past-president of the American Polygraph Association, obtained his "doctoral degree" from an unaccredited, mail-order diploma mill.

...

Larry Sinclair with Faux Ph.D. Ed Gelb


It's interesting that WhiteHouse.com chose a man of such questionable credibility to assess the credibility of Larry Sinclair.
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« Last Edit: Feb 24th, 2008 at 10:17am by George W. Maschke »  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #11 - Feb 24th, 2008 at 6:16pm
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WhiteHouse.com has announced that Larry Sinclair failed his polygraph examinations with "Dr." Ed Gelb. Because this information was published before the polygrapher reviewing the charts provided his evaluation, we can suppose that this will not be a "blind" evaluation, that is, the reviewer (believed to be Gordon H. Barland of Salt Lake City) will presumably be aware of how the original examiner scored the charts.
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #12 - Feb 25th, 2008 at 11:45pm
Mark & Quote Quote 
WhiteHouse.com has posted Ed Gelb's reports on the two polygraph "tests" that he gave Larry Sinclair on Friday, 22 February regarding his sex and drugs allegations. They may be downloaded, respectively, directly here:

http://www.whitehouse.com/files/intercept1_2.pdf

http://www.whitehouse.com/files/intercept3_4.pdf

WhiteHouse.com also confirms that "quality control" is to be performed by Dr. Gordon Barland (who, unlike "Dr." Gelb, actually has a doctoral degree):

Quote:
When we get the report of the second Polygraph expert who did the quality control we will post them up. The Quality Control Polygraph expert is Dr. Gordon Barland.
Update 10:15 PM EST. We have not received the Quality Control polygrapher report yet. We will have it sometime tomorrow. As soon as we have it we will post it. That will be the last post on this matter. This incident needs to be laid to rest.


It would appear that WhiteHouse.com is going back on its earlier promise to post video of Sinclair's polygraph examination:

Quote:
We will have all of the written results posted on the site in the next week including video taken of the Polygraph testing so there will be full disclosure and transparency on our part and eliminate any suspicion of any wrongdoing or manipulations of the testing or the results by Whitehouse.com or the polygraph experts.


In other news, Mr. Sinclair has started a blog since learning that he did not pass his polygraph and has posted, among other things, his e-mail correspondence with Dan Parisi, the owner of WhiteHouse.com. Among other things, Mr. Sinclair is upset that "Dr." Ed Gelb, whom Mr. Parisi selected to conduct the test, is not, after all, a "Dr." as Parisi (no doubt relying on Gelb's own misrepresentations) had represented him to be in his correspondence with Sinclair. Note that Parisi, who by now should be aware of Gelb's academic fakery, continues to refer to him as "Dr. Gelb" on WhiteHouse.com.

To date, Mr. Sinclair has offered no evidence to support his accusations against Barack Obama.
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« Last Edit: Feb 26th, 2008 at 12:27am by George W. Maschke »  

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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #13 - Feb 26th, 2008 at 1:11am
Mark & Quote Quote 
Larry Sinclair, in an interview with political blog Big Head DC, states that Ed Gelb presented himself as a PhD to him:

Quote:
BHDC: There have been several claims that Gelb is not a real PhD did he present himself as one to you? Did he seem professional?

LS: Gelb did in fact represent himself to me as having a PhD that I found out after returning home was in fact not the case. He did appear somewhat professional with a constant shaking, however he did not control anything about the process and in fact was taking his direction from Robert Braddock of WH.com and Dan Parisi.


It's worth noting that the American Polygraph Association -- the foremost polygraph trade organization -- does not consider Gelb's ongoing fraud to be a violation of its ethical standards.

Despite his experience with Mr. Gelb, Sinclair in closing avers that he will take another polygraph:

Quote:
BHDC: What are you going to do next regarding this whole situation?

LS: I will continue to put my story out there. I am getting some assistance in amending the lawsuit for refiling, and please note, it has not yet been dismissed, nor has the recommendation to dismiss been received or written as claimed by the judge identified on the Web. I am not going away, I am not recanting anything, and I am fighting on, especially with the tip I received this date. I will do a polygraph arranged by me, video tape it non-edited and with the findings released before stopping the camera and will post it before Tuesday if all goes well.
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #14 - Feb 26th, 2008 at 6:01am
Mark & Quote Quote 
Regular readers of AntiPolygraph.org may recall that last year, Ed Gelb performed a polygraph test on Wendy Ellis, a former prostitute who claimed that U.S. Senator David Vitter (R-LA) had been a customer. That polygraph examination was also paid for by a pornographer: Larry Flynt, the publisher of Hustler magazine.

Comparing the polygraph report that Gelb prepared on Ellis with those he prepared on Sinclair, one notes a glaring difference: for the Ellis polygraph report, he scored the charts both manually and with a computerized scoring algorithm:

Quote:
The resultant polygrams were traditionally (manually) scored and then scored by computer using an algorithm developed by the Applied Physics Laboratory of Johns Hopkins University. This algorithm has been validated by the National Security Agency and is presently being utilized by the Department of Defense. The results of this scoring are included in this report. The scoring indicates that the examination was "NDI" (no deception indicated) with a probability of deception of less  than .01 when Ellis answered the relevant questions as indicated above.

The results of the computerized examination indicate that Wendy Ellis was telling the truth when she answered the relevant questions.

During the post test interview, Ellis was advised of the results of the examination.


But Gelb only mentions the results of his hand-scoring of the charts in his two reports for Sinclair (concerning his sex and drug allegations, respectively). Why did Gelb fail to include computerized scoring results for Sinclair's polygraph examinations? Gelb's omission raises the question of whether there was a discrepancy between his hand scoring and the decision rendered by the computer.

In addition, note that while Ellis was advised of the test results at the conclusion, it appears that Gelb failed to advise Sinclair that he had failed during the post-test interview.
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« Last Edit: Feb 26th, 2008 at 6:19am by George W. Maschke »  

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