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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph (Read 58581 times)
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #15 - Feb 26th, 2008 at 8:18pm
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WhiteHouse.com has announced that it will post neither its video of Ed Gelb's polygraph examination of Larry Sinclair, nor Gordon Barland's review of the results:

Quote:
After the events of yesterday and this morning we will no longer be posting the video of the Polygraph testing or the secondary Polygrapher Expert’s results. To be accused of taking a bribe to suppress this story along with all of the hate mail and messages sent by Larry Sinclair supporters who believe we did something to taint the results has been very disturbing.

No matter what we put up it will never be good enough for his supporters. Mr. Sinclair was also given every opportunity to let us talk to the limousine driver to corroborate his story and he failed to do so. This will be the last post on this matter as this matter needs to be put to bed. We will be going back to regular reporting.


Sadly, WhiteHouse.com's decision to withhold this information can only serve to fuel (with some justification) speculation regarding the true motivations for such a decision and what actually transpired in Gelb's polygraph suite.
  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #16 - Feb 27th, 2008 at 12:17am
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George,

1.  What is your speculation with respect to the "true motivations" for such a decision?
2.  What are you suggesting "actually" did occur in Mr Gelb's polygraph suite?  Are you suggesting that Mr Gelb's test was rigged?  Shocked
  
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #17 - Feb 27th, 2008 at 5:47am
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Readers,

Many accusations but few facts.  The polygraph is "scientific."  In some other post it is more "of an art than a science."  How many lives and careers have been destroyed by an accusation but not by a jury?  A negative is hard to disprove.  Those who protest must be guilty.  You are either with me or against me but you cannot have a dissenting opinion even in good faith.  Is this what our country has come to?

To put it bluntly, it is scary.  Are you a communist?  Does your religion colour your judgement?  The intellegence community has bought into the argument a crutch, it is called the polygraph.  People do not fail, it is the machine that was not interpreted properly after the fact.  I was accused of deception at one time only to prove that I am even more than willing to sacrifice my family's future to protect the Constitution.  I stand by my values in the face of losing everything I hold dear.

Stand accused of violating the almighty polygraph and you will not serve our country.  My grandfathers who served in the Battle of the Bulge would have probably failed the polygraph.  They were not perfect men, they were not perfect patriots, but they were willing to get killed sent as fodder knowing that the Panzers could blow the turret off of any Sherman Tank the Germans could sight.  They were sent as a "delaying force."  Only one in five survived and most of those did so with heavy losses.  I saw them live with the ghost of those they held dear only to feel guilty that they somehow survived.

I only wish that I could ask them what they thought of a machine that could "read their thoughts."  From what they showed to me in time and affection over many years,  they wanted me to judge them by their actions and deeds, not by what others thought of them.  This polygraph business has got to stop.  It is more of a scare tactic than fact.

Regards.

  
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #18 - Feb 27th, 2008 at 6:54am
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Although WhiteHouse.com did not post it, Gordon Barland did in fact complete a review of Ed Gelb's polygraph examinations of Larry Sinclair. WhiteHouse.com sent Barland's review to Mr. Sinclair, who has posted it on his "Windows Live Space." AntiPolygraph.org has made word-searchable versions of Gelb's reports and Barland's review available here:

Gordon Barland's review shows Ed Gelb's statement in his reports that "The polygrams [polygraph charts] were 'blind scored' by another expert examiner" to be false (assuming Barland is the examiner to whom Gelb referred). In scoring Sinclair's polygrams, Barland was not blinded with regard to any of the following salient details:
  • The name of the original examiner;
  • The name of the examinee;
  • The nature of the examinee's allegations;
  • The actual polygraph questions asked (as opposed to just their type -- relevant, control/comparison, irrelevant, etc., which is all that is needed to score the charts);
  • The decision(s) rendered by the original examiner

That Gelb, a past-president of the American Polygraph Association, could consider Barland's review to have been "blind" helps illustrate just how far removed polygraph practice is from the scientific method.

Barland's report makes it clear why Gelb failed to mention the results of any computerized scoring of his polygraph charts. Although Barland, in his non-blinded review agreed with Gelb's hand scoring of the charts, in the one case (regarding the drug allegation) where Barland ran a computerized scoring algorithm on the chart, contrary to Gelb and Barland's hand-scored finding that Sinclair had failed, the computer determined that he had passed (and with flying colors at that)! Barland writes (at para. 6):

Quote:
I scored the printout of the second series of charts (regarding cocaine), but was not satisfied with the quality of the electrodermal channel on one of the charts. When I received the digital data and optimized the channel, I used the Federal 7 position scale and the 2007 DACA reaction criteria to evaluate the charts. I scored the charts as -7 (Deception Indicated). I also evaluated the second series using the computer algorithm PolyScore (v. 6.0). It evaluated the charts as No Deception Indicated, and calculated the probability of deception as being less than .01 on a scale from .00 to 1.00. This was inconsistent with my numerical analysis. This is a relatively uncommon occurrence. The DACA guidelines indicate that when there is conflict between the examiner's or reviewer's score and Polyscore, the human score takes precedence. The computer algorithms are considered to be useful supplements, but they are not definitive, I therefore concur with Mr. Gelb's conclusions that Mr. Sinclair showed indications of deception on both test issues.


So the PolyScore algorithm (that Ed Gelb so hailed in his polygraph report for Wendy Ellis) found Sinclair truthful with a less than 1% probability of deception! But in this case, Gelb and Barland (who cannot have been unaware of the firestorm of controversy that would have resulted had they found Sinclair non-deceptive with regard to this question) somehow reached a completely opposite conclusion!

Gelb did not provide Barland with the computerized data for the examination on Sinclair's sex allegations, and thus he was not able to run PolyScore on them.
« Last Edit: Sep 10th, 2011 at 5:51am by George W. Maschke »  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #19 - Feb 27th, 2008 at 6:51pm
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"...How many lives and careers have been destroyed by an accusation but not by a jury?  A negative is hard to disprove.  Those who protest must be guilty.  You are either with me or against me but you cannot have a dissenting opinion even in good faith.  Is this what our country has come to?"

The scariest thing is that these guys, for all practical purposes, have the "final say" with regard to the hiring at NSA/CIA/FBI.  Much to the chagrin of the hiring committees at these agencies.

It's only the national security!
  

"There is no direct and unequivocal connection between lying and these physiological states of arousal...(referring to polygraph)."

Dr. Phil Zimbardo, Phd, Standford University
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #20 - Mar 9th, 2008 at 8:27pm
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The latest issue of the weekly tabloid Globe Magazine features an article about Larry Sinclair that addresses, among other things, his lie detector tests with Ed Gelb:

Quote:
Now fueling further controversy in the ugly scandal is a disputed polygraph test that was set up and administered by an Internet Web site. Sinclair took up an offer from WhiteHouse.com, which is not connected to the government, to take a lie-detector test about his Obama charges. He was paid $10,000 for taking it and promised $100,000 if he passed.

He flew to Los Angeles and took the test administered by former American Polygraph Association president Dr. Ed Gelb on Feb. 22.

WhiteHouse.com reports that Sinclair failed on two key points -- the claim that he had sex with Obama, and the charge that he saw Obama smoke crack.

"There was deception indicated in both tests," the site reported on Feb. 24, adding that "another expert examiner" independently corroborated the findings. But Sinclair tells GLOBE he was suckered into taking the test and was "set up" to look bad by failing the polygraph.

He says he's been told Obama's camp is behind the lie-detector offer -- and also contends the Obama campaign put up hundreds of thousands of dollars to "set the entire thing up."

"They put a condition in there that I'm not allowed to take another polygraph test for four weeks," he says.

"This was a tactic designed to allow Obama to pretty much lock up the nomination before I can take another test and prove my story once and for all!"

In his defense, Gelb tells GLOBE, "I have never taken a bribe to do anything improper in my life. This is a profession based on truth, honesty, integrity. I don't think you're ever going to find me in a position to compromise that."


But of course "Dr." Gelb did compromise that by misrepresenting himself as a Ph.D. in marketing his polygraph services.
  

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Obama Accuser Larry Sinclair to Hold Press Conference
Reply #21 - Jun 16th, 2008 at 10:31am
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Larry Sinclair, who -- as you may recall -- in a YouTube video posted in January of this year challenged Senator Barack Obama to a polygraph showdown over alleged gay sex and illegal drug use, will be holding a press conference at the National Press Club in Washington, DC this Wednesday, 18 June 2008 at which he promises -- at long last -- to corroborate his allegations against Sen. Obama. One wonders how he might do so. Will he announce that he has passed a polygraph test?

Roll Eyes

Quote:
http://www.mmdnewswire.com/barrack-obama-illegal-drug-3492.html

Barrack Obama Illegal Drug Use Allegations to be Corroborated at Press Conference
June 13, 2008

PRESS RELEASE

Washington, D.C. - Despite death threats and an organized campaign to prevent him from speaking publicly, Larry Sinclair – on June 18, 2008, at 3:00 PM in the Lisagor Room of the National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC 20045, will for the first time reveal the corroborating evidence for his claim that on November 6 + 7, 1999, Larry: (i) met Obama at a gay bar where Barrack Obama arranged for the purchase of federal Schedule II drugs, (ii) which Larry and Obama thereafter ingested and (iii) then engaged in hi-risk, homosexual activities.

Larry’s story burst on to the scene on January 18, 2008, when Larry released a short video containing these allegations on YouTube.com.  That video has had close to a million views yet the mainstream media has completely ignored Larry’s serious allegations.  Thereafter, a clearly orchestrated campaign to discredit Larry began on the internet which forced Larry to resort to federal court to protect his reputation.

At the press conference, Larry will (i) reveal the corroborating evidence for his allegations regarding Obama, (ii) address the time-line of the response of the Obama campaign to his allegations and the murder of Donald Young, the openly gay choir director of Trinity United Church of Christ, Obama’s now-former church and (iii) the significance of the refusal of U.S. District Court Judge Henry H. Kennedy, Jr. to allow Larry’s case to proceed.

Media Contact:
Montgomery Sibley
mbsibley@earthlink.netThis email address is being protected from spam bots, you need Javascript enabled to view it
202-248-3973

- End -
« Last Edit: Jun 16th, 2008 at 12:53pm by George W. Maschke »  

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WhiteHouse.com Press Conference on Larry Sinclair's Polygraph Results
Reply #22 - Jun 17th, 2008 at 5:28am
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In a press conference timed to coincide with that which Larry Sinclair is scheduled to hold at the National Press Club on Wed. 18 June, WhiteHouse.com, which engaged faux Ph.D. Ed Gelb to polygraph Sinclair, will be presenting its case:

Quote:
http://www.whitehouse.com/FullStory.aspx?NewsID=1083

WASHINGTON, June 17, 2008: Whitehouse.com will hold a press conference regarding the Larry Sinclair controversy on June 18, 2008 in the Visagor Lounge of the National Press Club, 529 14th Street NW, Washington, DC 20045. Signup will start at 3:00 PM, and the actual conference will start at approximately 4:00 PM, following the conclusion of Mr. Sinclair's press conference, which is scheduled earlier in the day.

At the press conference, Whitehouse.com will describe how, in February 2008, Mr. Sinclair accepted an offer from Whitehouse.com to take two professionally-administered polygraph examinations to test the veracity of his explosive allegations. After the initial polygraph expert examined the results and made his conclusions, Whitehouse.com was accused of taking a $750,000 bribe to suppress and or alter the results of the polygraph examinations.

During the press conference, Whitehouse.com will release the results of the polygraph examinations, the reports of the experts, and a video of Mr. Sinclair taken while the examinations were being administered.

Whitehouse.com focuses on giving average Americans a greater voice on issues facing the country. Whitehouse.com, which is celebrating its 11th year, has been visited by over 100 million people since its inception in 1997. We are not affiliated with or endorsed by U.S. Government.
  

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Video Commentary on WhiteHouse.com's Polygraph Examination of Larry Sinclair
Reply #23 - Jun 18th, 2008 at 5:08am
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As mentioned on the blog, I've posted to YouTube a follow-up video commentary on WhiteHouse.com's polygraph examination of Larry Sinclair:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hc8Ys8iXTiU
« Last Edit: May 25th, 2016 at 8:31am by George W. Maschke »  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #24 - Jun 20th, 2008 at 3:35am
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So, why haven't you reported that Larry Sinclair was arrested after his D.C. press conference?
  

"Although the degree of reliability of polygraph evidence may depend upon a variety of identifiable factors, there is simply no way to know in a particular case whether a polygraph examiner's Conclusion is accurate, because certain doubts and uncertainties plague even the best polygraph exams."  (Justice Clarence Thomas writing in United States v. Scheffer, 523 U.S. 303, 118 S.Ct. 1261, 140 L.Ed.2d 413, 1998.)
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #25 - Jun 20th, 2008 at 10:35am
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Indeed, Larry Sinclair was arrested on an outstanding warrant (reportedly for insurance fraud) in the state of Delaware promptly after the conclusion of his press conference. To the best of my understanding, he is still in a District of Columbia jail awaiting extradition to Delaware. There is also an outstanding warrant for his arrest in Colorado on felony theft and forgery charges.

Early on the morning of Tuesday, 17 June (Central European Time), I received an e-mail message from Mr. Sinclair seeking my opinion regarding his polygraph examination and asking if I would call him or his lawyer, Montgomery Blair Sibley, that day. While I do not in any way endorse Mr. Sinclair's claims, I saw no harm in sharing with him my views regarding his polygraph examination (which in any event, were already posted here). I thought it best to put my remarks in writing as a protection against being misquoted, and I thus e-mailed him a summary of my observations regarding the polygraph examination that WhiteHouse.com arranged for him. I later forwarded this e-mail to Mr. Sibley, who wrote back asking whether it would be okay to refer the media to me. I replied stating that while I in no way endorse Mr. Sinclair's allegations, I would be happy (as always) to answer reporters' questions regarding the polygraph.

And that is how I ended up being mentioned in Mr. Sinclair's press conference, video of which is available from LarrySinclair.org:

http://larrysinclair.org/download/press.wmv

My e-mail to Mr. Sinclair has also been included (without my having been consulted, although I don't object) among other documents on the site:

http://larrysinclair.org/download/maschke.pdf

WhiteHouse.com held its press conference shortly after Mr. Sinclair's press conference ended. Dan Parisi, the proprietor of WhiteHouse.com did not provide the video of Sinclair's polygraph examination that had been promised in his press release, and after reading prepared remarks, he cut off questions and ended the press conference after only four minutes. WhiteHouse.com has since been scrubbed of any mention of the press conference.

Audio of both press conferences has been posted to Archive.org in a single audio file. I have extracted the WhiteHouse.com portion and attached it to this post.

I think it's fair to say that while Larry Sinclair's credibility has been thoroughly impeached, no thanks are due to the pseudoscience of polygraphy.
« Last Edit: May 25th, 2016 at 8:34am by George W. Maschke »  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #26 - Jun 20th, 2008 at 1:49pm
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Thanks so much for posting this parisi audio file - otherwise, the whole event has disappeared!?
  
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #27 - Jun 20th, 2008 at 2:02pm
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Hello,
One question...
In your opinion was there something fishy with the whole white house polygraph.

I think it is fair to say that whitehouse didn't want to perpetuate the rumour once they found out Sinclair was lying as it makes no sense for them to have recieved a bribe when they could have made so much more.
  
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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #28 - Jun 21st, 2008 at 7:40am
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Michael,

Keeping in mind that polygraphy itself is as fishy as a basket of herring left to rot under the sun for several days, yes -- as I've explained earlier in this message thread -- there is something particularly fishy about the manner in which the polygraph examination arranged by WhiteHouse.com for Larry Sinclair was conducted.

At the same time, I'm not suggesting that Sinclair's allegations against Barack Obama are true (far from it!), nor is it my purpose to extend hope to the lunatic fringe who desperately want to believe Sinclair and grasp at the straw of his questionable polygraph results for succor.
  

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Re: Larry Sinclair and the Polygraph
Reply #29 - Jun 24th, 2008 at 9:57pm
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It's interesting how pornographers are becoming such big consumers of polygraph exams nowadays.  It strikes me just how many similarities there are between them and the two biggest consumers of polygraphs: the United States government and law enforcement agencies.
  

Is former APA President Skip Webb evil or just stupid?

Is former APA President Ed Gelb an idiot or does the polygraph just not work?

Did you know that polygrapher Sackett doesn't care about detecting deception to relevant questions?
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