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A forum for free and open discussion of polygraph-related topics
Posted by T.M. Cullen
- Jan 12, 2009, 01:10 PMQuoteI have yet to read a single published study that indicates 98% accuracy.
They why do polygraphers (including Mr. Trimarco) continue to tout this figure?
QuoteI have however read numerous studies reporting 90 to 95% accuracy. how do you think the NAS arrived at the conclusion polygraph procedure can identify deception at better than chance.
The NAS must not have been too impressed with those studies as they didn't find the polygraph to be anywhere near 90-95% accurate. They claimed most so-called studies out there lacked "scientific rigor". Despite claims by the APA that there are thousands of studies showing high polygraph accuracy, the NAS concluded there was a lack of quality research.
TC
Posted by gary davis
- Jan 12, 2009, 07:48 AMI have yet to read a single published study that indicates 98% accuracy. I have however read numerous studies reporting 90 to 95% accuracy. how do you think the NAS arrived at the conclusion polygraph procedure can identify deception at better than chance. There are a number of studies published at the National Institute of Justice site you should take the time to review.
Finally I don't believe there is any difference between specific issue and single issue...
gary davi
Finally I don't believe there is any difference between specific issue and single issue...
gary davi
Posted by T.M. Cullen
- Jan 12, 2009, 12:03 AMQuoteWow .. Mr. Cullen is upset that the polygraph functions "well above chance" but is not perfect... what involving human beings is perfect
Who is upset? And polygraphers routinely DO claim to be nearly perfect, with bogus claims of 98% accuracy.
GM said the polygraph is "not accurate", Pailryder claimed "very accurate" (with caveats and specified "single issue" polygraphs). I provided a quote from the NAS report which concludes "Well above chance, far from perfection". The person asking the original question (whether somebody suspected of child abuse should be believed simply because they passed a polygraph) deserves to know what one of the nation's top scientific body's conclusion on polygraph accuracy.
Like I said above, the standard claim from polygraphers is 98% accuracy, which certainly exceeds the NAS report's conclusion. So which is it? Are polygraphers lying or is the NAS wrong? Is polygraph accuracy near perfect (98%), or "significantly above chance"? Say 65% maybe. Big difference, especially when accusing somebody of something as serious as child molestation.
And there is still the matter of "single issue" versus "SPECIFIC incident". Is there a difference? Specific incident would seem to imply a crime has definitely been committed. Single issue, would seem to imply something a bit less (eg. funds MAY be missing, a child has claims to have been molested...etc.). The NAS report used the phrase "specific incident" when making the "significantly above chance" estimate of accuracy.
TC
P.S. As for employment polygraphs, well, the NAS report's estimate of accuracy was even lower:
"almost a century of research in scientific psychology and physiology provides little basis for the expectation that a polygraph test could have extremely high accuracy" (p. 212).
"[the polygraph's] accuracy in distinguishing actual or potential security violators from innocent test takers is insufficient to justify reliance on its use in employee security screening in federal agencies."
This despite years of lying and outright fabrication by agencies using the polygraph to screen employees.
Posted by gary davis
- Jan 11, 2009, 06:02 PMFirst most Agencies will share Polygraph Information. That said what is disqualifying for one agency may not for another. Most agencies will provide lists of what behaviors disqualify an applicant.
Wow .. Mr. Cullen is upset that the polygraph functions "well above chance" but is not perfect... what involving human beings is perfect
gary davis
Wow .. Mr. Cullen is upset that the polygraph functions "well above chance" but is not perfect... what involving human beings is perfect
gary davis
Posted by T.M. Cullen
- Jan 11, 2009, 01:52 PMHere is what the National Academy of Sciences says about the accuracy of the polygraph:
"Notwithstanding the limitations of the quality of the empirical research and the limited ability to generalize to real-world settings, we conclude that in populations of examinees such as those represented in the polygraph research literature, untrained in countermeasures, specific-incident polygraph tests for event-specific investigations can discriminate lying from truth telling at rates well above chance, though well below perfection." (My underlining)
Note they say "specific incident" not "single issue". There is probably a difference. In this case, presumably, that it has been determined (by a professional qualified to make such a determination) that the child has actually been molested.
TC
"Notwithstanding the limitations of the quality of the empirical research and the limited ability to generalize to real-world settings, we conclude that in populations of examinees such as those represented in the polygraph research literature, untrained in countermeasures, specific-incident polygraph tests for event-specific investigations can discriminate lying from truth telling at rates well above chance, though well below perfection." (My underlining)
Note they say "specific incident" not "single issue". There is probably a difference. In this case, presumably, that it has been determined (by a professional qualified to make such a determination) that the child has actually been molested.
TC
Posted by pailryder
- Jan 11, 2009, 08:35 AMnotsure,
Properly conducted single issue polygraph testing can be very accurate, but regardless of the polygraph result or who believes who--- if a child is making sexual comments (whatever that means) about a relative, that child should never be alone with that relative. NEVER!
Properly conducted single issue polygraph testing can be very accurate, but regardless of the polygraph result or who believes who--- if a child is making sexual comments (whatever that means) about a relative, that child should never be alone with that relative. NEVER!
Posted by George W. Maschke
- Jan 10, 2009, 11:50 PMnotsurewhattodo,
No, polygraphs are not accurate. Polygraphy has no scientific basis, and the results are without diagnostic value. I cannot advise you whether to believe the child or the relative, but polygraph results should not influence your consideration of the likelihoods involved.
No, polygraphs are not accurate. Polygraphy has no scientific basis, and the results are without diagnostic value. I cannot advise you whether to believe the child or the relative, but polygraph results should not influence your consideration of the likelihoods involved.
Posted by notsurewhattodo
- Jan 10, 2009, 09:48 PMthis may sound like an odd question to ask but, i've been struggling with it for 2 years now. Are polygraphs accurate? If your child were making sexual comments about one of there relatives they spent at least 2 to 3 times a week with and the relative took the polygraph and passed; would you believe the child or the relative?
Posted by George Maschke (Guest)
- Feb 26, 2001, 01:39 PMThe chances may be good, as sharing of records is common. You might check with the department in that major city in Tennessee and ask how long they maintain records of polygraph examinations. You may also be entitled by law to obtain a copy of the polygrapher's report. Look into it.
To protect yourself in the future, read The Lie Behind the Lie Detector.
Last modification: George Maschke - 02/26/01 at 10:39:23
To protect yourself in the future, read The Lie Behind the Lie Detector.
Last modification: George Maschke - 02/26/01 at 10:39:23
Posted by Jack Frost
- Feb 25, 2001, 08:45 PMI took a polygraph for a major city in TN about 2 years ago and failed my polygraph terribly! I turned it into a confessional. I am currently seeking employment at a local police dept. What is the possibility of the other dept. getting a copy of the poly? How should I go about this? Any help would be much appreciated!