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Author Topic: Study
J.B. McCloughan
posted 12-13-2007 11:59 PM Click Here to See the Profile for J.B. McCloughan Click Here to Email J.B. McCloughan Edit/Delete Message
Just found this and thought some of the members here involved in these type of exams might be interested.

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posted 12-14-2007 01:27 AM Click Here to See the Profile for rnelson Click Here to Email rnelson Edit/Delete Message
In 2003 Grubin, Madsen, Peggy Heil, and myself were part of a panel presentation at ATSA.

I think they have been doing some experiments with Dan Sosnowski (hey, that may explain some things...) - no, seriously, polygraph experiments, using monitoring test and drug tests.

Madsen presented their data, and stated to the ATSA conference participants that their study was hampered by "not enough liars," because of the comparatively few number of offenders who were caught actually using drugs, then he presented an average of decision accuracy across truthful and deceptive results, and offered an accuracy estimation of 75%.

Madsen is neither stupid nor uneducated. He knows that his math was dishonest and misleading - he should have used weighted averaging - because means are non-resistant to base rates.

He may be an OK guy, but I think its worth watching carefully what he does.


"Gentlemen, you can't fight in here. This is the war room."
--(Stanley Kubrick/Peter Sellers - Dr. Strangelove, 1964)

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Barry C
posted 12-14-2007 09:14 AM Click Here to See the Profile for Barry C Click Here to Email Barry C Edit/Delete Message
So what do you think of this study?

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