Quote from: danmangan on Aug 05, 2014, 02:49 PMDoug, in my opinion -- and I'm not a scientist or a researcher -- 75 percent accuracy is a reasonable assumption, given the observations (and cautions) made by NAS.
But whether the single-issue accuracy rate is 65 percent, 75 percent or even 85 percent, a polygraph test is still a crapshoot. By that I mean the outcome of the test is uncertain.
My gut tells me that real-life polygraph testing is appreciably less accurate than it is represented in the APA's latest meta-analysis (the executive summary of which is available at www.polygraph.org). Why do I say that? There's a lot of monte carlo modeling and other test-tube wizardry in the APA analysis, in my opinion.
And all bets are off when it comes to countermeasures. That's why I've been advocating, for a couple of years now, an ongoing countermeasure challenge series integral to APA events.
About screening tests... They "work" to the extent that people often make admissions. That's the utility I spoke of. From what I've seen, though, screening tests are much more likely to flag deception than they are to verify truth. In other words, the screening process does not treat deceptive and truthful candidates equally.
So, the price paid in collateral damage is very high indeed, but do screening polygraphs serve the greater good?
Perhaps that all depends on whose ox is being gored.
While the pro/con polygraph arguments rage on, polygraph continues to grow -- not just in the USA but world wide.
There is even a bill currently in congress to relax EPPA.
My mission, at least part of it, is to add a measure of reality to the debate by being a moderate voice.
Quote from: danmangan on Aug 05, 2014, 10:19 AMDoug, in my opinion, screening exams (LEPET, PCSOT, etc.) are pure utility. Put those aside.
Incident-specific exams are another matter entirely.
On that score, I concur with NAS: Single-issue polygraph accuracy appears to be "well above chance, though well below perfection."
In my business model, all of my clients are thus informed.
To what extent potential clients find a value proposition in that statement is exclusively their decision.
Quote from: danmangan on Aug 05, 2014, 09:33 AMArkhangelsk,
Generally speaking, I am against post-test interrogations conducted by polygraph examiners. However, it is often a necessary part of one's job description, as for police and government examiners.
My opinion is that -- in the interest of objectivity -- polygraph exams should be conducted by disinterested civilians -- not a sworn officer or agency employee with a vested interest in succeeding as a part of the home team.
That kind of distance, in my view, better supports the fairness that should be essential to the polygraph process.
By the way, when I articulated this view on another forum, condemnation from polygraphers was swift and universal -- but most of those discussion participants were cops or former cops.
When I conduct tests for private citizens, or for criminal defense attorneys, there is no post-test phase other than reporting the results, answering any questions, and going over the charts (and/or video) if need be.
My polygraph exams are utterly civil if not congenial. There's no reason for them to be anything else. I make it clear that I am paid to render an opinion which is a mere probability statement -- not to solve crimes or get other confessions, although that can be a by-product of the process.
For your information, I take an open-book approach with my potential clients. In fact, my web site has a "Recommended Reading" page designed to introduce a full spectrum of opinions about polygraph. To what extent would-be customers lean one way or the other regarding their faith in the polygraph is strictly up to them.
My goal is to help ensure that potential test-takers -- and indirect consumers of polygraph -- better understand the risks, realities and limitations of polygraph testing.
Using the polygraph as an electronic rubber hose is not a part of my business model, but it is indeed used as such in many other applications.
Sure, the electronic rubber hose can get results, but there's a price to be paid in the form of collateral damage.
Quote from: danmangan on Aug 01, 2014, 12:28 PMIt is my belief that a consumer who is fully informed about the risks, realities and limitations of polygraph testing is much better able to determine whether polygraph is a worthwhile option.
Quote from: Drew_Richardson on Aug 01, 2014, 01:25 PMDoug,
While it is true that Mr. Mangan's Polygraph Examinee's Bill of Rights does not change the inherent nature of the quackery that is lie detection nor excuse his present practice of same, if he hopes to put himself and his colleagues out of business through his efforts as I (and you and others) do through openly opposing it, then he is to be congratulated.
The jury remains out on the matter...