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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Sexual History Poly - need advice! (Read 11224 times)
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #45 - Nov 17th, 2016 at 4:29am
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Sorry, but I am a little too busy to write detailed comments about simple a-priori certainty estimations. I would suggest reading up on Jacob Bernoulli.
  
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Dan Mangan
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #46 - Nov 18th, 2016 at 2:30pm
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Ark, I'm not asking for a detailed write-up -- just a realty check.

Here's a siimple question for you: Does the aforementioned article advance the case for polygraph "testing" in a significantly meaningful way?

A simple yes or no will do.
« Last Edit: Nov 18th, 2016 at 4:10pm by Dan Mangan »  
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #47 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 3:45am
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Sorry for the late reply Dan, I'm traveling a lot these days. I do not think the article would have much utility for the practitioner. For the practitioner/researcher, a-priori probability can influence a researcher's beliefs about something before looking at any data. For example, you could procure data from a 'scientist' who is 90% sure that a parameter lies between a certain interval and gradually narrow the interval to form a prior distribution as is oft employed in Bayesian statistics, where the posterior distribution is a weighted sum of the likelihood and the prior. Assuming you have good reason to believe your 'scientist', you can then assign heavier weights to the prior.
  
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #48 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 4:23am
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Thanks, Ark.

Sounds like a-priori probability research findings ginned up by like-minded polygraph advocates -- the same cabal that  programs the indu$try's magical Monte Carlo modeling centrifuge in their super secret statistical alchemy facility -- is just another SWAG: a Scientific Wild-Ass Guess.

Double, double toil and trouble;
    Fire burn, and caldron bubble...
  
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Joe McCarthy
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #49 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 8:13am
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I didn't get the memo on the"super secret facility."  What gives?  Do I need a special ring and grip for this information?
  

Joe
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #50 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 1:41pm
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Evidently, Joe, one needs exactly that.

Here's a line item from the APA web site's description of member benefits:

Access to the Research Center, its progressive research, and its publications in areas of techniques, validity, scientific issues, current practices, assessments, surveys of attitudes and problems facing the polygraph profession, where its publications and papers have been presented at APA seminars as well as at other criminal justice and related conferences

Research Center? Really? Does the APA let just any member analyze the research data, look at the sourcing of same, and study their proprietary cookbooks?

Somehow I doubt it, but I'll ask for unfettered access anyway.

Hey, I wonder where the APA's "Research Center" is.... Is it at the headquarters in Chattanooga? Does it exist in the cloud? Is it on Ray Nelson's laptop? Hmmmm....

Maybe an APA researcher will chime in. They follow this forum like bored housewives follow soap operas.
  
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #51 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 5:15pm
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Dan, research is a worthwhile endeavor. The problem is that we are reaching the asymptote on CQT laboratory research. University research, while sporting firm ground truth, totally lacks ecological validity. Most of the participants are airhead undergrads whose only real concern in life is why so many people unfriended them on Facebook. Juxtaposed with someone facing prison time, the ecological validity of laboratory research is sanguine at best. I suppose it's theoretically possible to enhance ecological validity in the lab (imposing imprisonment on participants), but you would then become a villain from a Batman movie.

On the flip side, establishing ground truth in the field is severely challenging; depending on confessions or convictions does not cut it, especially since one cannot know of the false negative examinees who were never subjected to post test interrogation.

If there is ever to be any movement on the CQT, establishing confident levels of ground truth in field studies is paramount--anything short of that is to continue the dance that has been going on for a half a century.

CIT research is very rich and ongoing and has expanded to Event Related Potentials, especially the P300 wave and Functional Magnetic Resonance Imaging work with neural imaging. Although still relatively nascent, the only field data thus far is from Japan and fragments from Israel, so the same challenges lie ahead.
« Last Edit: Nov 28th, 2016 at 6:54pm by Ex Member »  
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #52 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 9:24pm
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Has Ray done something to wrong you in a past life?
  

Joe
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Dan Mangan
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Re: Sexual History Poly - need advice!
Reply #53 - Nov 28th, 2016 at 10:36pm
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Ex Member wrote on Nov 28th, 2016 at 5:15pm:
If there is ever to be any movement on the CQT, establishing confident levels of ground truth in field studies is paramount--anything short of that is to continue the dance that has been going on for a half a century.


Ironically, it is this state of perpetual stagnation that enables the polygraph indu$try to keep riding the gravy train. As long as there are ample believers in pro-polygraph dogma, the cult-like attraction will continue. For the polygraph indu$try, ignorance is bli$$.
  
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