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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke (Read 104370 times)
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #30 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:19pm
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If we can't be trusted to fix integrity issues from within fairly, if we can't treat our own fairly and honestly, how can the American Public trust us to treat them fairly or honestly?

Maybe the problem isn't accuracy or reliability; maybe the real issue is integrity and the lack thereof some key influencers  who hold positions of trust and are policy makers have within the industry.

All of my questions involve simple black and white issues, especially in regard to using the product we sell.  To me this is an easy issue, it was to John Rios (TAPE President) too until I held him to his answer.   

It is a no brainer to any business man.  "Do you, or would you use your own product?"  It is professional seppuku to say "no."  At least it is in every other business but this one it seems.

If indeed the accuracy and reliability is not good enough for the testers to rely on the accuracy, maybe the industry needs to be shut down until we fix the accuracy and reliability problem.  Because if it is not accurate and reliable enough for us, how can we say it is accurate and reliable enough for the general public?

So, whats the score.  Is the test accurate and reliable, or is it not?

This is actually a pretty simple yes or no question, right pailryder?
  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #31 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:32pm
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Quote:

Mr. Mangan's career is not in jeopardy and I suspect that his oft-articulate spin will be welcome to some.


Ray,
I'm not so concerned about personality traits, but, I would like to hear your take on Dan's idea of a Bill of Rights for Polygraph examinees.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #32 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:39pm
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Ex Member wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:32pm:
Quote:

Mr. Mangan's career is not in jeopardy and I suspect that his oft-articulate spin will be welcome to some.


Ray,
I'm not so concerned about personality traits, but, I would like to hear your take on Dan's idea of a Bill of Rights for Polygraph examinees.


A "bill of rights" means nothing when it addresses a test that the examiner wouldn't use for himself if he/she found him/herself in a similar situation.

Otherwise, it is a bill or rights based on a lie; it's a lie to sell a lie in that context.  If the implied contract of accuracy and reliability mean nothing, why would anyone think that a "bill or rights" has any meaning.

Jesus, for the love of God, would someone stand up for our accuracy rates.  There must be someone that trusts the studies the way I do/want to
« Last Edit: Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:36pm by Joe McCarthy »  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #33 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:51pm
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Joe, the examinee bill of rights would help protect people from being hu$tled into the bullshit scientific "test."

Polygraph's absolute accuracy is unknown, and, in fact, is unknowable.

It's just a SWAG -- a Scientific Wild-Ass Guess, to quote retired CIA polygraph operator John Sullivan.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #34 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:53pm
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Joe McCarthy wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 9:06pm:
The Quadri-Track Zone Comparison Technique correctly identified 100% of the innocent as truthful with no inconclusives and no errors.


If I recall in the Quadri-Track ZCT, Matte simply adds another spot, Fear of Error-Hope of Error. I'm curious to know how that would increase accuracy.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #35 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:03pm
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Dan Mangan wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:51pm:
Joe, the examinee bill of rights would help protect people from being hu$tled into the bullshit scientific "test."

Polygraph's absolute accuracy is unknown, and, in fact, is unknowable.

It's just a SWAG -- a Scientific Wild-Ass Guess, to quote retired CIA polygraph operator John Sullivan.


Ok, lets look at that argument.

the examinee bill of rights would help protect people from being hu$tled into the bullshit scientific "test."

Using your logic, you want a bill of rights to protect an examinee from being hustled while they are being hustled?

If it's a "bullshit test," then the examinee has already been hustled.

With this logic, why would you continue to run tests?



« Last Edit: Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:33pm by Joe McCarthy »  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #36 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:23pm
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Ex Member wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 10:53pm:
Joe McCarthy wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 9:06pm:
The Quadri-Track Zone Comparison Technique correctly identified 100% of the innocent as truthful with no inconclusives and no errors.


If I recall in the Quadri-Track ZCT, Matte simply adds another spot, Fear of Error-Hope of Error. I'm curious to know how that would increase accuracy.



That was a cut and paste from the study.

Looking at it and pondering on it, I have to admit, it's interesting.  Having said that, 100% accuracy?  ehhhhhhhhhhhh I am just to skeptical to believe that
  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #37 - Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:54pm
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Joe, you did a cut and paste from the abstract. You have not read the complete study, correct?

Further, my article was more of a micro-study, i.e., one examiner with 25+ years of experience running exams on clear-cut criminal issues in a police setting.

The fear/hope spot has been discredited by some of the higher-profile polygraph "scientists," but I disagree with them.

A countermeasure challenge series would help clarify things,  but the dedicated-to-truth fakers say such a thing would just be a "circus stunt."

In other words, they're chicken.

As to why I run tests, it's all supply and demand. But at least I make sure the client knows that polygraph validity is grossly exaggerated. Additionally, more and more of my time with clients is spent consulting, not testing.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #38 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:08am
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Dan Mangan wrote on Jul 1st, 2015 at 11:54pm:
Joe, you did a cut and paste from the abstract. You have not read the complete study, correct?

Further, my article was more of a micro-study, i.e., one examiner with 25+ years of experience running exams on clear-cut criminal issues in a police setting.

The fear/hope spot has been discredited by some of the higher-profile polygraph "scientists," but I disagree with them.

A countermeasure challenge series would help clarify things,  but the dedicated-to-truth fakers say such a thing would just be a "circus stunt."

In other words, they're chicken.

As to why I run tests, it's all supply and demand. But at least I make sure the client knows that polygraph validity is grossly exaggerated. Additionally, more and more of my time with clients is spent consulting, not testing.


  Yes, I did read it all and I'm still having issues with the 100% number.  I do find the fear/hope spot an interesting concept though, and would like to see some independent analysis of the theory.   

Anyway, yes I did cut and past the abstract and even said that I did.  Remember when PP posts made fun of me for long posts.  I try to cut it down, but sometimes things just need to be said lol.   

I do not agree with the other examiners that the CM challenge would be a circus stunt.  HOWEVER, I do think it would become a circus stunt by one side or the other for shameless self promotion.  I also think it would become a three ring circus of excuses and accusations of hackery coming from whomever is on the losing side of the "contest." (lack of a better term)

Honestly, I think it would create more questions and controversy than answers and solutions.

As to your answer regarding why you still run tests, at least it was an honest and straightforward answer to a honest question.  Better than what I get down here in Texas

  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #39 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:11am
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Irregardless, the question still stands, how can any polygraph test be 100%?  I believe that is what pailryder was trying to get at.

Just to be fair
  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #40 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:22am
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Joe, the APA endorsed a half-dozen or so studies claiming perfect accuracy in their 1997 report,  "The Validity and Reliability of Polygraph Testing," which stated polygraph's *average* accuracy at 98%. 

The APA held firm on that figure from 1997 to 2011 -- ten years after the highly damning NAS report. 

Clearly, polygraph is BS (belief system) based, not rooted in science.

But it sells, and that's what polygraph is all about.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #41 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:32am
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well, this goes back to one of my original questions.  If the polygraph industry truly believes in this accuracy rate, shouldn't the community demand examiners to submit to the test we insist is accurate and reliable to resolve issues only polygraph can within the industry?

If it is 98% accurate, what is the industry afraid of by enacting this bylaw across the board?

If it is so accurate, than it won't cause any harm.... other than to the unethical and dishonest person

2. Should the Ethics Committee deem a polygraph test necessary in an investigation of injurious conduct, the following shall be adhered to:

a. If the Ethics Committee’s investigation of injurious conduct of a member indicates a polygraph examination of that member is desirable to refute or substantiate those injurious conduct charges..the Committee will appoint three (3) member polygraph examiners to conduct that polygraph examination. Those member examiners will conduct that polygraph examination at the direction of the Chairman of the Ethics Committee and submit their reports of the outcome and / or opinion of the truthfulness of the member subject in writing to the Chairman.

b. Should injurious conduct charges be made against a member by another member and the Ethics Committee deems it desirable to have those charges substantiated, they will appoint three (3) member examiners to conduct a polygraph examination on the member making the charges and report the results of the examination in writing to the Chairman.

c. Should the Ethics Committee deem a polygraph examination desirable on the accused or the accuser. the Committee must have the approval of 3/4 of the quorum of the elected members before the polygraph examination is conducted. The President would then Call a special meeting of the elected members for this purpose.

d. Members appointed by the Ethics Committed Chairman to conduct polygraph examinations on members regarding injurious conduct charges will serve without remuneration.

e. Should a member refuse to submit to a polygraph examination under any of the aforementioned terms. that member will be subject to termination of membership.
  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #42 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:44am
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Ya know I was just thinking.  It seems like every time discussions happen in the public sector like this, it's usually because they pushed these debates into the public sector.  Yet they will complaint that "dirty laundry" is being aired, but they either can't figure out that they put the basket by the clothesline; or that they are in denial as to their actions.
  

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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #43 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 12:53am
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Joe, in my opinion, the polygraph industry does not believe in their own accuracy claims. It merely sells them. That's why a bill of rights for examinees is so badly needed.
  
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Re: American Polygraph Association Elections: Race for president-elect pits Daniel Mangan against Patrick O'Burke
Reply #44 - Jul 2nd, 2015 at 1:06am
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Joe, 

Stay smart. 

100% accuracy is not a test. It is deterministic observation. it is perfect and infallible because human behavior and randomness have no role and no effect on deterministic models. 

Here is the thing, if we want to evaluate some phenomena for which we can use perfect deterministic observation then we do not need a test. I've said this all elsewhere.

Sometimes the question is one of quantity and not strictly category, and so we might want to make a physical/linear measurement. Of course then we are obligated to describe the unit of measurement, and to verify that the data conform to the scale characteristics. Measurements are very good. But unlike deterministic models they are theoretically imperfect because they include physical measurement error. And of course, if we can take a physical measurement we do not need a test. 

We need test whenever we want to measure or evaluate some phenomena for which neither perfect deterministic observation nor physical measurement can apply. Amorphous things, like personality, intelligence or math "skills" (as opposed to math performance/achievement).

Because they are used to evaluate amorphous phenomena, all tests and all test results are imperfect and probabilistic. The obligation of a test - as opposed to an unstructured clinical method that would be more subject to human bias or confirmation bias - is to use some structured procedure or instrument and some replicable analysis to quantify the margin of uncertainty surrounding a result or conclusion within some margin of error that has been previously defined as tolerable. This is how science and testing work. It is not expected to be perfect. 

I have never seen Dan's research design for a countermeasure study, though he does not seem to correctly understand things like science, testing, research methods or randomness (conference participants are self selected not random, and research participants have to consent to participate). If the past is any indication, Dan's publication of test results of ~100% accuracy tells us nothing in reality about what to expect, because tests are probabilistic and not deterministic. Published claims of ~100% accuracy simply provide no information about what to realistically expect. It is simply pretending.

So where is the hustle here? 

As for a Bill of Rights. It might be interesting to get some information from experience in other professions who have tried this kind of solution. My take on the matter is that it will be more effective to do this without added drama (but drama is fun for some when they are campaigning). Addressing this factually and neutrally will probably take a form similar to other professions that have come to terms with the concept of "informed consent" which implies that a person is adequately informed about what will be done and how it might affect the person, in addition to sometimes clarifying the boundaries and obligations of the person and the professional. Taken this way, it appears a lot more manageable than Dan's drama and marketing hype.

On the subject of using the polygraph to investigate or resolve conflicts among polygraph examiners... their is a broader discussion that Joe hints at regarding the concept of "injurious conduct" and whether it is or is not the role of a professional association to mediate or adjudicate personality or professional conflicts. If there is violation of a written code then that is different. But without submitting it in writing to the proper authorities that publish or enforce those code, most associations can and will do nothing without violating their rules and exposing themselves to more complex problems. 

Attempting to adjudicate or mitigate a conflict in this forum will be impossible, and serves only to call attention to the issue. If that is the objective, then the message will be better understood if it is more brief (which not my strength) and more descriptive (hmm). 

Getting more directly to the issue of the use of the polygraph within the governing and operation of the association... at the risk of some Kafaesque karmic cataclysm, yes. And I believe most polygraph examiners have actually taken polygraphs. Everyone is aware of the potential for problems when a profession does not clarify its boundaries and expectations and values in addition to its mission and goals. 

This is exactly why the steady movement in medicine and psychology and forensics towards things like standards and quality control and continued education, and evidence-based practices that can provide results based on replicable analysis models that can realistically quantify the level of confidence and margin of error with norm referenced decision rules. you know... science, and all of the kinds of things that shed light on just how outrageous it is to try to market and publish claims of ~100% accuracy while carving a niche market out of those individuals who may be simultaneously anxious about or distrustful of the polygraph but facing circumstances desperate enough to prompt them to seek the kind false hope that is encouraged by the combination of aggressive criticism + claims of super-wizardry and ~100% accuracy. In the end we actually do need structure and we do need science to help us understand what can be realistically claimed or offered - without the need to hustle or pretend. 

.02

rn
  
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