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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot (Read 39401 times)
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #30 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 12:31am
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I'm going to jump into this foray for just one post. Hopefully.

There is no doubt that the NAS is a prestigious scientific research body and I have no doubt about the validity of the type of research they did on the polygraph or their conclusions. But Washington D. C. we have a problem.

Our poluted-ticians in D.C. endorsed and funded this research. Then, as usual, they shelved the results. So what good was it? Money,as usual, was wasted. So far as I can tell, the only use has been as a debate item. Correct me if I'm wrong. This happens to way too many research projects as well as most other beneficial legislation that reaches the congressional floors.

Another case in point: The Superconducting Super Collider Laboratory (SSCL) that would have benefited all mankind. So whappened to it? Approximately 7 years and two and a half billion dollars into the project a powerful idiot Senator from New York killed it because Texas sent a "woman" Republican Senator to Washington D.C. I saw and heard that statement come out of his mouth during an interview.

We need to replace the old goofballs with new people who will certainly become new goofballs but, maybe, with new goofball ideas.

  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #31 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 1:21am
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Twoblock,   Calling what the NAS did to generate their report "research", is a mischaracterization. They did not do any research into polygraph, and did not submit there conclusions to peer review before publishing their findings. All they did was pick 57 studies out of a thousand and give their opinion on the contents of those 57 studies.  

Much like Dr. Maschke has published his opinions concerning the utility of countermeasures without conducting any scientific research to support his claim. He told me once  He didn't have the money.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #32 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 1:59pm
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At least some of the NAS report (to the effect that polygraph is unreliable and unscientific) hopefully would have included the fact that examiners can exert a major influence on test outcomes.

An examiner can depress the Question Onset and answer keys several seconds before posing the CQ. Result: late response with low score.

The strongest stimulus in the test room is the examiner. The examiner can 'enhance' reactions to RQ's by deliberate inflections in his voice and accentuating specific words. Result: higher scores on RQ's

In cases where the examiner is trying hard to deliver a desired result, he may well skew the results by effecting the above behaviours.

To counteract a potentially corrupt examiner, the examinee should not sit in front of examiner facing sidewards, but should sit in-line with the examiner to his side, from where he can observe whether the examiner is attempting to manipulate the outcome.

It is because examiners can manipulate test results that they develop their 'power-over-all' attitudes and become aggressive when challenged.

Likewise, every examiner that comes to this board to debate ultimately becomes aggressive and engages in ad-hominem (take note of spelling SP) attacks.

Its pretty much the same as giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #33 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 2:17pm
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SanchoPanza

Technically if the NAS reviewed one study, it can be called research. Can you or anyone else verify how many studies they looked at before picking the 57 to use as case review for their report?

If a lawyer reviews just one case, he will charge for research. When filing or helping to file federal mining and ADA actions, I may look at 25 or more cases before picking a half dozen for the Memorandum of Law.
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #34 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 2:39pm
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SanchoPanza wrote on Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:34am:
If NSA has 25 jobs and 50 applicants 40 of which pass their polygraph test. Why should they bother at all with the 10 who failed? It would waste time and resources because they have enough people who passed to fill their needs? 

What are the chances that one or more of the 40 people who “passed” their polygraph were being deceptive about one or more matters of substance?

I’m sure different people will offer varying opinions as to the chances, but I don’t think anyone will reasonably argue that there is no chance.

What then, is the utility of polygraph screening in the absence of a disqualifying confession of some sort?  At the end of the test the agency cannot be confident the people who “passed” were actually telling the truth, and they cannot be confident the people who “failed” were actually lying.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #35 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 4:22pm
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Twoblock

My most recent post in this thread that generated your response on the subject clearly states that the NAS did not conduct any new or original laboratory or field research on polygraph testing. THEY DIDN’T.

Scientific Research is defined as the systematic observation of phenomena for the purpose of learning new facts or testing the application of theories to known facts. Reviewing someone else’s work is at best secondary or desk research. 

I wonder why you would choose to call the NAS report “RESEARCH” when there isn’t a single sentence any where in their report “The Polygraph and Lie Detection” that calls their activity Research. Could it be that as scientists they knew they were not conducting research, in the scientific sense, even if you don’t?

In fact the authors of the report clearly Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph very clearly describes the task with which they were charged as follows; 

Quote:
The Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph was asked by the U.S. Department of Energy to conduct a scientific review of the research (emphasis added) on polygraph examinations that pertain to their validity and reliability, particularly for personnel security screening, and to provide suggestions for further research,


If you are willing to refer to what they did as Secondary research (also known as desk research) defined as the summary, collation and/or synthesis of existing research; in future posts, I will be willing to refer to what they didn’t do as Primary research ie experiments, investigations, or tests carried out to acquire primary data from, for example, research subjects or experiments.

This should end the semantic argument and allow us to move on.

Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #36 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 5:31pm
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Sergeant, You can't really quantify the false negatives in a particular group until they are identified as false negative. That is not just in polygraph, that applies to any testing procedure

You can't really make a prediction concerning how many will be false negatives unless you know where the cutoffs are. As I have said before, by moving the cut-off line for acceptance/rejection, pass/fail you change both the number of false positives and the number of false negatives in a screening exam. This does not change the error rate.    By moving the cutoff to reduce false negatives you will increase false positive.

The following numbers and percentages have no correlation to real life testing but were chosen to simplify the math involved.

Theoretically if you look at our 50 applicants and assume that with the current cutoff score of x>70 is a pass and x<70 is a fail we have determine that we can expect 10 false positives and 10 false negatives.

Now as an organization we believe that false positives do no direct damage to our mission because they are never hired and we can live with rejecting 20% of our applicants because of the size and quality of our applicant pool, but false negatives must be reduced because they are killing our project.

We know mathematically that we can reduce our false negatives by moving the cutoff to x>85 =pass and x<85 =fail. The error rate doesn't change and is pretty much irrelevant. but by reducing our false negatives we have increased our false positives. Well the organization must decide if rejecting 15 false positives is worth insuring we have 5 fewer false negatives. If not, we have to move the cutoffs back where they were or change our protocol in a manner that reduces  false positives but still protects us from false negatives.  

From what I read in the employment manual on this site from DODPI it appears that this breakdown test is designed to do just that. Under their procedure anyone who fails the screening exam is given a more specific test or tests to verify the findings of the screening test and identify the question or questions that caused the deceptive results on the screening exam. I would presume that if someone passes the breakdown test, the logical assumption would be that the screening exam was a false positive. Much like the TB skin screening test, if it tests positive for TB, they don't start treating you for TB, they give you another more specific test.  But oddly, I don't think the majority of employers do this regarding drug testing. If you test positive on their cheap, high error rate, pee in a cup, $4.00 drug test. They just don't hire you, but if you fail one after you are hired they will generally give you a more specific test before firing you. 

As I said before it looks to me like this breakdown test process is an innovation designed to reduce false positives and if polygraph examiners aren't using it, they should start. Perhaps if this procedure had been in place during your pre-employment exams your outcome would have been different but this manual looks like it was published in 2002. I don't know when you took your tests. It does not appear that this protocol or manual was reviewed by NAS.

I think that it is a sign that polygraph is moving forward and if your tests were conducted before this procedure came into use, I don't think it would be fair to criticize not using it any more than we should criticize Civil War Surgeons for not knowing that washing their hands between amputations could save lives.

Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #37 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 5:33pm
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SanchoPanza wrote on Aug 29th, 2008 at 4:22pm:
Twoblock

My most recent post in this thread that generated your response on the subject clearly states that the NAS did not conduct any new or original laboratory or field research on polygraph testing. THEY DIDN’T.

Scientific Research is defined as the systematic observation of phenomena for the purpose of learning new facts or testing the application of theories to known facts. Reviewing someone else’s work is at best secondary or desk research. 

I wonder why you would choose to call the NAS report “RESEARCH” when there isn’t a single sentence any where in their report “The Polygraph and Lie Detection” that calls their activity Research. Could it be that as scientists they knew they were not conducting research, in the scientific sense, even if you don’t?

In fact the authors of the report clearly Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph very clearly describes the task with which they were charged as follows; 

Quote:
The Committee to Review the Scientific Evidence on the Polygraph was asked by the U.S. Department of Energy to conduct a scientific review of the research (emphasis added) on polygraph examinations that pertain to their validity and reliability, particularly for personnel security screening, and to provide suggestions for further research,


If you are willing to refer to what they did as Secondary research (also known as desk research) defined as the summary, collation and/or synthesis of existing research; in future posts, I will be willing to refer to what they didn’t do as Primary research ie experiments, investigations, or tests carried out to acquire primary data from, for example, research subjects or experiments.

This should end the semantic argument and allow us to move on.

Sancho Panza


Sancho, since the NAS review of the research convinced this distinguished and non-partisan group that polygraph screening is invalid, why are you beating this dead horse?
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #38 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 5:46pm
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SanchoPanza wrote on Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:00pm:
They reviewed 57 out of over 1000 Cullen

Hardly what I would call thorough.

Sancho Panza

PS you made a comment about Aldrich Ames the other day.   
Did you know he didn't pass his polygraph?

sp


Sancho, I am not convinced your scrolling comment is correct. Do you have a link to a credible source support your assertion?

According to the Senate Comittee on Intelligence, Ames "passed" polygraph sessions in 1986 and 1992.  Do you disagree with the committee's conclusion?

http://www.fas.org/irp/congress/1994_rpt/ssci_ames.htm

Edited to remove duplicate information.
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #39 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 5:58pm
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polytek wrote on Aug 29th, 2008 at 1:59pm:
At least some of the NAS report (to the effect that polygraph is unreliable and unscientific) hopefully would have included the fact that examiners can exert a major influence on test outcomes.
You mean you haven't read it ?

An examiner can depress the Question Onset and answer keys several seconds before posing the CQ. Result: late response with low score.

The strongest stimulus in the test room is the examiner. The examiner can 'enhance' reactions to RQ's by deliberate inflections in his voice and accentuating specific words. Result: higher scores on RQ's

In cases where the examiner is trying hard to deliver a desired result, he may well skew the results by effecting the above behaviours.

To counteract a potentially corrupt examiner, the examinee should not sit in front of examiner facing sidewards, but should sit in-line with the examiner to his side, from where he can observe whether the examiner is attempting to manipulate the outcome.

It is because examiners can manipulate test results that they develop their 'power-over-all' attitudes and become aggressive when challenged.

Just because it is possible to maniplulate a test doesn't mean that it occurs. While I agree that corrupt examiners should be punished, I have never read any paper or manual on polygraph that would teach an examiner how to manipulate the results or claim that doing so would be moral, ethical or legal. 

HOWEVER, Dr. Maschke  wrote a book endorsing the idea the examinees should try to manipulate the results


Likewise, every examiner that comes to this board to debate ultimately becomes aggressive and engages in ad-hominem (take note of spelling SP) attacks. 
Well butter my butt and call me a biscuit. YOU accusing someone of aggressive or ad hominum argument.  GIVE ME A BREAK

As to what you call attacks on your spelling, An abundance of spelling mistakes distracts  too much from whatever point you might be trying to make and your points really can't stand the damage. Good grief the wordprocessor that comes bundled with windows has a spell checker USE IT

Its pretty much the same as giving whiskey and car keys to teenage boys.

You seem to be making the assumption that if you give a teenager whiskey and the keys to a car he will begin to drive drunk.  NOT IF HE IS TAUGHT RIGHT FROM WRONG
 

very impressive Polytek

Sancho Panza

  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #40 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 6:37pm
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meangino

According the "Unclassified Abstract of the CIA Inspector General's Report on the Aldrich H Ames Case" and  the 1994 Senate Select Committee on Intelligence report "An Assessment of the Aldrich H. Ames Espionage Case and Its Implications for U.S. Intelligence",  the traitor showed consistent deception in his 1986 polygraph regarding whether or not he had been asked to work for a foreign government and a 1993 review of this polygraph by the FBI also raised concerns as to deception dealing with unauthorized disclosure of classified material.

In his 1991 polygraph  specific information regarding the traitors activities and financial transactions was withheld from the examiner, Deception was indicated, when he was asked whether he was concealing contacts with foreign nationals (the guys who were giving him the cash?) . After several hours of testing, he continued to show deception in response to the question. At a follow-up polygraph 4 days later he did in fact show no deception but the new examiner did note that his overall level of responsiveness was down considerably from the prior test. This might have been a red flag to many examiners. 

If the investigators had given the examiner the financial information they had he might have asked a question like Have you received any funds directly or indirectly from a foreign national and thus shortened the CIA investigation considerably. 

Isn't it interesting, that both of these investigative bodies that actually had access to ALL of the information and were looking to establish culpability for failure to locate and identify this traitor before he did serious damage; knowing that congress loves to put heads on the chopping block, (well at least anyone’s head but their own) failed to conclude that the failure to catch this traitor was the fault of polygraph even though there were some criticisms of the CIA management, coordination, and polygraph review structures. 

I'm convinced that the reason Ames wasn't caught sooner lies in our government's asinine refusal to share information with itself. Hey wait a minute.  Didn't the World Trade Center attacks result from the same deficiency?

Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #41 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 6:38pm
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Maybe because they didn't review all of the research and your dead horse comment fails to acknowledge both the research they didn't review as well as the research conducted since they released their report.

The "horse" is far from dead.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #42 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 6:54pm
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Quote:
Maybe because they didn't review all of the research and your dead horse comment fails to acknowledge both the research they didn't review as well as the research conducted since they released their report.


The polygraph studies that met our criteria for consideration do not generally reach the high levels of research quality desired in science. Only 57 of the 194 studies (30 percent) that we examined both met minimal standards of scientific adequacy and presented useful data for quantifying criterion validity.  (p108)

They reviewed what  shoddy research was out there.

Stop whining because you don't like the results!

See those men in the white suits?  The've come to take you someplace where you can rest for awhile.  It's a very nice place where you can recuperate.  There is a nice "day room" where you can relax and play cards.  In fact, we have some guests you may know.  There's Mr. Sackett, Mr. Coffey and a Mr. Hunter.  They are looking for a "4th" for bridge.  Now, won't you go and get some help?  Some where to talk  about all those wicked scientists and "traitors" you think are out to get you?   Wink
« Last Edit: Aug 29th, 2008 at 7:31pm by T.M. Cullen »  

"There is no direct and unequivocal connection between lying and these physiological states of arousal...(referring to polygraph)."

Dr. Phil Zimbardo, Phd, Standford University
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #43 - Aug 29th, 2008 at 9:35pm
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Cullen  This is from the APA Website

The American Polygraph Association (APA) recognizes the efforts of such a prestigious body as the National Academy of Sciences in the work performed in exploring questions associated with the detection of deception. We wish to note that the APA was not invited to participate in any of the deliberations, nor consulted to provide responses to many questions raised in this project. 

The APA proudly counts among its membership, well qualified and highly regarded academicians who routinely conduct and publish research in peer reviewed publications and who would have eagerly contributed to this project. Perhaps in a follow-up assessment, the NAS or a similar body will look to the largest international organization in the detection of deception field for answers to some of the important questions in such an inquiry. It is important that the public be aware that in their published report, the National Academy of Sciences did not conduct any new or original laboratory or field research on polygraph testing. 

Their effort was confined to a review of the research on polygraph testing and in particular to that which pertains to personnel screening. In doing so, the academy relied on only 57 of the more than 1,000 research studies available. The NAS panel and the APA recognize that the field of lie detection is a difficult one to quantify or measure in terms of real world effectiveness. As the NAS so clearly reports, real world conditions are difficult if not impossible to replicate in a mock crime or laboratory environment for the purpose of assessing effectiveness. As a result, a paradigm for research into the validity and efficacy of lie detection has always been, at best, a difficult challenge. 

We further agree that a lack of resources over the past decades has hampered more meaningful research, particularly in the security and applicant screening arena. It must be addressed; however, that the NAS report does not adequately recognize the many successes of polygraph in both the criminal specific arena and in National Security. Polygraph testing admittedly not perfect, has been and continues to be an extremely valuable tool. We firmly believe that continued scientific research will support our position; therefore, we welcome the NAS recommendation for additional research and greater innovation in the field. 

We agree with the panel’s conclusion that although there may be alternative techniques to polygraph testing, none of these alternatives outperform, nor do any of them yet show promise of supplanting the polygraph in the near term. We further agree with the NAS finding that expanding research efforts be directed at detecting and deterring major security threats, including efforts for improving techniques for security screening. 

We believe polygraph testing now provides satisfactory detection and deterrence, enhanced research efforts; however, will certainly expand our capacity to improve efforts in those areas. The APA will continue to conduct and support research within its limited resources; however, we must look to other sources, perhaps including the Federal Government to allocate the resources needed to fully accomplish the specific research challenges offered by the NAS. 

The APA stands ready and willing to work with such sources to bring the recommendations of the NAS to fruition.
                                                           end
]
]
Any person or group who believes or states that picking 57 studies out of 194 when there are over 1000 to choose from can be considered thorough or exhaustive lacks the collective brain power to dump water out of a bucket if the directions were printed on the bottom. 

You do not know what was contained in the more than 800 studies they didn't look at and NEITHER DO THEY.

I may choose to leave this forum for awhile because I am busy or bored, but I assure you I will not ever be driven from the forum by the intellectual equivalent of the Lollypop Guild. It's time for your nap now If you're a good boy there might be jello later.

Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #44 - Aug 30th, 2008 at 1:58am
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SanchoPanza wrote on Aug 29th, 2008 at 9:35pm:
Cullen  This is from the APA Website

The American Polygraph Association (APA) recognizes the efforts of such a prestigious body as the National Academy of Sciences in the work performed in exploring questions associated with the detection of deception. We wish to note that the APA was not invited to participate in any of the deliberations, nor consulted to provide responses to many questions raised in this project. 

The APA proudly counts among its membership, well qualified and highly regarded academicians who routinely conduct and publish research in peer reviewed publications and who would have eagerly contributed to this project. Perhaps in a follow-up assessment, the NAS or a similar body will look to the largest international organization in the detection of deception field for answers to some of the important questions in such an inquiry. It is important that the public be aware that in their published report, the National Academy of Sciences did not conduct any new or original laboratory or field research on polygraph testing. 

Their effort was confined to a review of the research on polygraph testing and in particular to that which pertains to personnel screening. In doing so, the academy relied on only 57 of the more than 1,000 research studies available. The NAS panel and the APA recognize that the field of lie detection is a difficult one to quantify or measure in terms of real world effectiveness. As the NAS so clearly reports, real world conditions are difficult if not impossible to replicate in a mock crime or laboratory environment for the purpose of assessing effectiveness. As a result, a paradigm for research into the validity and efficacy of lie detection has always been, at best, a difficult challenge. 

We further agree that a lack of resources over the past decades has hampered more meaningful research, particularly in the security and applicant screening arena. It must be addressed; however, that the NAS report does not adequately recognize the many successes of polygraph in both the criminal specific arena and in National Security. Polygraph testing admittedly not perfect, has been and continues to be an extremely valuable tool. We firmly believe that continued scientific research will support our position; therefore, we welcome the NAS recommendation for additional research and greater innovation in the field. 

We agree with the panel’s conclusion that although there may be alternative techniques to polygraph testing, none of these alternatives outperform, nor do any of them yet show promise of supplanting the polygraph in the near term. We further agree with the NAS finding that expanding research efforts be directed at detecting and deterring major security threats, including efforts for improving techniques for security screening. 

We believe polygraph testing now provides satisfactory detection and deterrence, enhanced research efforts; however, will certainly expand our capacity to improve efforts in those areas. The APA will continue to conduct and support research within its limited resources; however, we must look to other sources, perhaps including the Federal Government to allocate the resources needed to fully accomplish the specific research challenges offered by the NAS. 

The APA stands ready and willing to work with such sources to bring the recommendations of the NAS to fruition.
                                                           end
]
]
Any person or group who believes or states that picking 57 studies out of 194 when there are over 1000 to choose from can be considered thorough or exhaustive lacks the collective brain power to dump water out of a bucket if the directions were printed on the bottom. 

You do not know what was contained in the more than 800 studies they didn't look at and NEITHER DO THEY.

I may choose to leave this forum for awhile because I am busy or bored, but I assure you I will not ever be driven from the forum by the intellectual equivalent of the Lollypop Guild. It's time for your nap now If you're a good boy there might be jello later.

Sancho Panza


The APA!!! Yes, a totally unbiased organization that has no stake in polygraph testing. I completely believe anything they have to say.
What a joke!! This is like asking the mafia about the honesty of a wise guy!!
Yes I am sure Sancho that your leaving because your "busy" !! Grin Grin
  
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FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot

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