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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot (Read 39391 times)
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #15 - Aug 27th, 2008 at 2:13pm
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SanchoPanza

Please re-read my two posts on this string and explain to me how you consider these a personal attack. You asked me a pointed question and I gave you a pointed answer plus statements about others. I, also, asked you pointed questions to which you have yet to answer. Are they forthcoming?

I consider my involvement here as debating. Not added-hominy-tacks.
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #16 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 1:27am
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Sancho Panza

You have posted to this thread since my last post and you chose not to respond to my questions. Are you going to answer or are you going to pull a nonombre and cut-a-chogie? I answered your questions.

You say that I should question the veracity of my material. Are you trying to tell everyone that Trimarco didn't fail George on all ten of his questions? The results has been posted on this website man. I think you should question the veracity of the material that you regurgitate. Quit complaining that I am making personal attacks on you. That's a cop out and you know it. Looks like you may be running out of material with which to debate.

It has been suggested that you really are Skip Webb. Lately it sure is food for thought. I don't give a tinkers damn whether you are Skip Webb or Ichabod Crane, a debate is a debate and if one side doesn't answer a challenge the loss is automatic. At least that was the rule when I was in college.

  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #17 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 1:32am
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Sancho Panza

Correction of my first sentance. It should have read something like "since I posed the questions to you"
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #18 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 2:40am
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Twoblock: First allow me to apologize for lumping you in with Notguilty1, Polytek ETC when I voiced my complaint concerning ad hominum attacks. You have not engaged in those with me, but frankly with the flurry of activity of trying to engage in debate with several people at a time, unfortunately this group seems to run together like the tigers under Sambo's tree. 

As to your questions:  Sometimes they require a bit of research in order to respond.
you wrote"
Quote:
Trimarco failed him on every damn question. How many times have you seen this happen? Be completely truthful now. If you were the QC entity on this graph, would flunking every question raise a red flag?


Let me respond based on what I have read. First In "Too hot a Potato" Dr. Maschke states, Quote:
I learned that although SA Trimarco had only asked me about counterintelligence issues during his post-test interrogation, he had in fact deemed me to have been deceptive with regard to all of the relevant questions.


That is Dr. Maschke's interpretation of what he read in the report and that is not exactly what he later quotes reportedly from SA Trimarco's actual finding: Quote:
It is the opinion of this examiner that the applicant was deceptive when responding to the listed relevant questions in Series I and Series II.


From what I have read, screening exams are not individual question specific when it comes to a determination of deception. What that means is that if reactions indicative of deception to any relevant question on a polygraph chart during a screening exam then the examinee has failed the entire test. Can it be truthfully said that the examinee failed every question?  No. That is not what SA Trimarco is quoted as saying. Can the examiner determine which specific question or question the examinee is lying to. No.  I don't think so, not without running something called a breakdown test. I found the details in the DODPI employment manual on this site. I'm not sure but I think this breakdown test thing is fairly recent. The concept may represent a change in protocol designed to reduce error

Since flunking every question on the test is not what SA Trimarco was quoted as stating in his report and I haven't found any literature that says it is possible to fail every question on a polygraph test, your other question is moot.  As to whether or not SA Trimarco ran this breakdown test or if he even knew that a breakdown test was needed, well he would have to answer that.


Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #19 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 4:17am
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OK pay attention. ANY scientific test by definition must have an error rate. If there is no error rate it cannot be called a scientific test. Scientific tests have accuracy rates and error rates. Accuracy Rate is what you have left after you subtract the error rate from 100% .Error rates are made up of False Positives and False Negatives. In Polygraph a False Positive is where the results of the examination indicate deception when the subject is telling the truth. A False Negative in Polygraph means that the results indicate truthfulness when the subject was in fact lying regarding a relevant issue. If you add the number of false positives to the number of false negatives and calculate the total as a percentage of the tests in a given group, you have the error rate. 



Just because the polygraph has something in common (error/accuracy rate) with a scientific test like DNA, doesn't make it a scientific test.  That is a false syllogism:

ALL scientific tests have error rates.
Polygraph tests have error rates.
Polygraph tests are therefore SCIENTIFIC.

Also, just  because polygraphy makes use of scientifically measurable data, doesn't make it scientific either.   

You must also establish that there is a DIRECT, UNEQUIVOCAL, and CAUSAL relationship between the F3 responses measured by your magic box and deception.  And the relationship between variables must be shown to be statistically significant.  Read the quote at the bottom of my posts.

When I failed my test at the NSA, no follow investigation was even done to establish whether I was deceptive on the test.  It was totally subjective, unsubstantiated, unscientific and unverified claim that I was deceptive on the test.  So how could an error/accuracy rate be established with data that is not even shown to be in error or accurate?

The SCIENTISTS at the NAS/NRC didn't seem to think the polygraph was scientific.  So who should we believe?
  

"There is no direct and unequivocal connection between lying and these physiological states of arousal...(referring to polygraph)."

Dr. Phil Zimbardo, Phd, Standford University
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #20 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 7:38am
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SP, 
This is the "original post" to which I was referring:

SanchoPanza wrote on Aug 26th, 2008 at 3:04pm:
People who read and post on this site would do well to remember that the founder of this web site co-wrote a book that repeatedly tells the reader it is OK to lie and deliberately conceal information as well as offering suggestions regarding ways and means to attempt conceal criminal activity.  
This justifiably calls his veracity into question on just about any issue.

People who read and post on this site would also do well to remember that the very existence of this web-site is a result of the founder's sour grapes over his inability to pass a polygraph examination for a position sensitive to national security. This disappointment ignited an ill conceived crusade conducted from outside the United States that attempts to conceal the aid he is trying to provide to criminals and enemies of the USA behind a spurious quest for justice.

Sancho Panza

I don't see how anyone could read that and fail to conclude it is an ad hominem attack against George.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #21 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:34am
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When I failed my test at the NSA, no follow investigation was even done to establish whether I was deceptive on the test


Croddy V FBI  pretty much established that NSA doesn't have to conduct followup investigations on applicants to verify polygraph results if they don't want to.

When a hiring authority uses polygraph screening tests for employment purposes they accept the possibility of false positives and false negatives and adjust their scoring criteria to purposely reduce the likelihood of a false negative with the full knowledge that by reducing false negatives they will have an increased rate of false positives. They can do this because the potential cost to National Security is much greater from a false negative than the consequences of failing to hire an applicant because of a false positive. They are the ones with the jobs to fill and they get to decide who they will hire and what criteria they will use. Polygraph employment tests for government jobs are legal. When you entered the application process you were not entitled to a job and they were not obligated to hire you whether you passed or failed your polygraph exam. You really don't know why you were rejected by NSA it may have been something in your background they didn't like. One of your neighbors may have told them some negative information about you. Maybe it was a combination of polygraph and negative background. YOU DON"T KNOW.  You just assume it was only because of polygraph because they told you failed your test. Neither one if us know if you really failed your test or maybe the spooks at NSA just told you failed to get you into a "Stress Interview" situation to monitor how or IF you react under pressure. 

If NSA has 25 jobs and 50 applicants 40 of which pass their polygraph test. Why should they bother at all with the 10 who failed? It would waste time and resources because they have enough people who passed to fill their needs?  

You can Boo Hoo all you want, but NSA didn't owe you anything, They used a screening tool that it was legal for them to use and you don't have to like it, but you need to learn to live with it. 

As to your constant commentary about the NAS study, maybe you should read the whole thing. If you did, you would find that it is not the scathing indictment of polygraph you seem to think it is. You would also find that the National Academy of Sciences did not conduct any new or original laboratory or field research on polygraph testing. 

Their effort was confined to a review of the research on polygraph testing and in particular to that which pertains to personnel screening. In doing so, the academy relied on only 57 of the more than 1,000 research studies available.

They also lost any semblance of a balanced inquiry  by inviting persons against polygraph to offer testimony and prohibiting polygraph experts from giving testimony at any point during their review.

All that being said, in the  five years since the release of their report, completed studies and studies now under way have taken NAS recommendations and included them in their research.

Quote:
Read the quote at the bottom of my posts.

I read it and I tried to find some study conducted by or paper or book published by Dr. Zimbardo that contained the statement. I even went to his website for information. THE ONLY PLACE I CAN FIND ANY REFERENCE TO THIS ALLEGED STATEMENT IS IN POSTINGS ON THIS SITE. Did you read this in a study somewhere or are you simply quoting from someone elses posting. Please provide some sort of reliable reference for the quote. if one exists. 

Sancho Panza
« Last Edit: Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:58am by SanchoPanza »  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #22 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:19am
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Sergeant

Dr. Maschke opens his credibility and the directionality of his moral compass to debate by virtue of his book and his postings on this site. Challenging his character or criticizing his behavior under these circumstances is not ad hominum attack because the man is hopelessly entangled in his message. 

Are you saying he didn't write the book?  Are you saying that it doesn't contain what I said it does? 
Are you saying that he didn't create this site because he was angry because he didn't pass his test?
Are you saying that his book and his website doesn't attempt to aid criminals and enemies of the United States? Are you saying that Dr. Maschke is unaware of how his book is used or who it is being used by? Don't be ridiculous. Whatever I think of his position and ideas, I don't think he is stupid or naive. 

Good Grief Sergeant! Look at the number of posts on this site by criminals seeking information on countermeasures. Translated excerpts from his book have been found in terrorist training manuals. 

Sancho Panza

  

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Shawn Adolf Passed Polygraph Denying Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #23 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 12:25pm
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9news.com of Colorado reports that Shawn Adolf, who has been charged along with Tharin Gartrell and Nathan Johnson on drug and weapons charges, has passed a polygraph examination in which he denied the existence of a plot to assassinate Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama:

Quote:
http://www.9news.com/rss/article.aspx?storyid=98557

DENVER - 9Wants to Know investigators have learned one of the three men being investigated after allegedly making threats against Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) now says there never was such a plan.

Federal law enforcement sources say Shawn Adolf passed a polygraph exam in which he stated that he and two other Colorado men facing federal weapons and drug charges never had a plan to shoot Obama.

Adolf was the fugitive who jumped out of a six story window at the Cherry Creek Hotel in Glendale on Sunday morning when local and federal law enforcement officials knocked on his hotel door.

Adolf was arrested on seven outstanding warrants from Colorado and Texas on various charges totaling $1 million.

Law enforcement officials were lead to Adolf after an Aurora Police sergeant stopped a driver who was driving erratically just south of Hampden Avenue and Parker Road earlier on Sunday morning. Police say inside the rental car driven by Tharin Gartrell, 28, police found two rifles, scopes, a bulletproof vest, many rounds of ammunition and a rolling methamphetamine lab.

Gartrell led officials to the Denver Tech Center Hyatt Regency Hotel where they found Nathan Johnson, 32, and an unidentified woman along with more methamphetamines in a room on the third floor.

That arrest led authorities to the Cherry Creek Hotel and Adolf. After his jump from the window, Adolf was arrested. He suffered a broken ankle in the fall.

On Tuesday, the U.S. Attorney's office announced the three men didn't pose a "credible threat" threat to Obama. Federal officials described the men's plans as more "aspirational" than "operational." They told reporters the men are methamphetamine users who were making empty threats about shooting the Democratic nominee.


A video report is available on the above-linked story page, in which the polygraph results are presented as being "another reason to believe that a threat to Senator Barack Obama was not as serious as it first appeared." However, polygraph results -- having no scientific basis and hence no evidentiary value -- are no reason to discount the alleged threats.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #24 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 4:03pm
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However, polygraph results -- having no scientific basis and hence no evidentiary value -- are no reason to discount the alleged threats.


Wow that's a stretch, trying to make a cause out of an incidental comment in a news story. 
There are a lot of white supremacists in the US Probably more than the number of false positive polygraphs alleged on this board in the last 8 years. A great many of them use methamphetamine and own guns. I will bet somewhere close to every darned one of theses Meth-Soaked, Gun-Toting, haters of anyone who isn't white have commented to their peers about shooting the Democratic Candidate. Surprise surprise one of these tweakers get arrested on warrants and possession charges and tries to deal himself out of trouble by rolling on one of his own kind because one night while sitting around shooting meth and retouching the swastika tattoos on their genitalia his buddy said "I ought to get my rifle and shoot that $#&^*&^*%"  (insert favorite racial epithet here)
Dr. Maschke really, 99% of these guys don't even know that the Candidate isn't African-American

So they arrest a few guys and begin their investigation which includes polygraph. They pass the polygraph and the entirety of the investigation (which I'm guessing is pretty darned thorough considering the governments potential embarrassment if they are wrong) confirms the polygraph results. Then along you come and try to use this information to portray polygraph in a bad light. 

Well that's just WRONG. This polygraph and subsequent investigation actually is anecdotal evidence that verifies the accuracy of polygraph. 

There now exists more evidence on this particular case that polygraph works than there is in your personal case that polygraph doesn't work.

Providing of course, that the press has all of the information and are reporting it accurately...

Sancho Panza
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #25 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 6:19pm
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Quote:
Croddy V FBI  pretty much established that NSA doesn't have to conduct followup investigations on applicants to verify polygraph results if they don't want to.

When a hiring authority uses polygraph screening tests for employment purposes they accept the possibility of false positives and false negatives and adjust their scoring criteria to purposely reduce the likelihood of a false negative with the full knowledge that by reducing false negatives they will have an increased rate of false positives. They can do this because the potential cost to National Security is much greater from a false negative than the consequences of failing to hire an applicant because of a false positive. They are the ones with the jobs to fill and they get to decide who they will hire and what criteria they will use. Polygraph employment tests for government jobs are legal. When you entered the application process you were not entitled to a job and they were not obligated to hire you whether you passed or failed your polygraph exam. You really don't know why you were rejected by NSA it may have been something in your background they didn't like. One of your neighbors may have told them some negative information about you. Maybe it was a combination of polygraph and negative background. YOU DON"T KNOW.  You just assume it was only because of polygraph because they told you failed your test. Neither one if us know if you really failed your test or maybe the spooks at NSA just told you failed to get you into a "Stress Interview" situation to monitor how or IF you react under pressure.


You miss my point entirely.  Intentionally, probably, to avoid answering the question.

You insinuated that the polygraph is a scientific test because it, as in ACTUAL scientific tests have rates if accuracy/error.

I then point out that the above is actually a silly  "false syllogism", and also point out that the accuracy of NSA pre-employment polygraphs  are not even measured (no follow up).  You did bring up the topic of error rates, didn't you?

Rather than respond to my point, you deflect by pointing out that NSA is not requred to follow up and that they don't owe anyone a job.  That  is certainly true.  How could they follow up to determine error rates?  The test is so subjective and varies greatly from examiner to examiner.

Truth is, the polyraph is not really a test but an interrogation disguised as a test by using a device which happens to track a scientifically measurable data set, that doesn't necessarily establish a direct,  unequivocal casual relationship between it and deception.

In the name of Webb the father
Sackett the Son
and Coffey the Holy poster
amen!
  

"There is no direct and unequivocal connection between lying and these physiological states of arousal...(referring to polygraph)."

Dr. Phil Zimbardo, Phd, Standford University
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #26 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 6:57pm
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Hmm Looked to me like you were whining about failing your NSA test again.

Is this your question? 
Quote:
The SCIENTISTS at the NAS/NRC didn't seem to think the polygraph was scientific.  So who should we believe?


The short response is that since the NAS reviewed less than 6% of the polygraph studies that were available to them. I don't think that their conclusions should be taken as the final word on polygraph accuracy, when they looked at so little of the evidence and conducted NO research on their own.
  

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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #27 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 7:58pm
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SanchoPanza

Appology accepted.

Trimarco's quote "showed deception on the listed relavant questions" tells me that "the listed" (being key words) would entail all of the relavant questions. If I wrote that kind of statement I would expect it to be interpreted as "all".

I guess we will have to yield to George and Trimarco and I don't expect Trimarco to ever venture a post on this website. At least under his name. He has had ample reason to do so in the past. However, I will stand by my assessment of Dr. Maschke.
  
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #28 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:04pm
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Quote:
The short response is that since the NAS reviewed less than 6% of the polygraph studies that were available to them. I don't think that their conclusions should be taken as the final word on polygraph accuracy, when they looked at so little of the evidence and conducted NO research on their own.


Not true.  They examined what little evidence there is on the polygraph and concluded:

We have reviewed the scientific evidence on the polygraph with the goal of assessing its validity for security uses, especially those involving the screening of substantial numbers of government employees. Overall, the evidence is scanty and scientifically weak. Our conclusions are necessarily based on the far from satisfactory body of evidence on polygraph accuracy, as well as basic knowledge about the physiological responses the polygraph measures. We separately present our conclusions about scientific knowledge on the validity of polygraph and other techniques of detecting deception, about policy for employee security screening in the context of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) laboratories, and about the future of detection and deterrence of deception, including a recommendation for research.

Quote:
Hmm Looked to me like you were whining about failing your NSA test again.

You can question the findings all you want, but who would tend to be more credible, an independent body of scientific researchers or a person who makes his/her living off the test and has a habit of making unsubstantiated accusations and personal attacks?   


TC
« Last Edit: Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:21pm by T.M. Cullen »  

"There is no direct and unequivocal connection between lying and these physiological states of arousal...(referring to polygraph)."

Dr. Phil Zimbardo, Phd, Standford University
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Re: FBI Polygraphed Nathan Johnson, Suspect/Informant in Possible Obama Assassination Plot
Reply #29 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:00pm
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They reviewed 57 out of over 1000 Cullen

Hardly what I would call thorough.

Sancho Panza

PS you made a comment about Aldrich Ames the other day.   
Did you know he didn't pass his polygraph?

sp
  

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