Page Index Toggle Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5  ReplyAdd Poll Send TopicPrint
Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the truth (Read 26257 times)
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
Global Moderator
*****
Offline


Make-believe science yields
make-believe security.

Posts: 6220
Joined: Sep 29th, 2000
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #30 - Nov 28th, 2006 at 9:08am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
LieBabyCryBaby wrote on Nov 28th, 2006 at 12:02am:
George: 

There are many things we have to "pay" for in this life. If the worst thing you have had to pay for is a failed polygraph and not being a Government employee, then you have a lot to be thankful for. Be thankful that the biggest thing you have to complain about is that failed polygraph, and be thankful for all the time you have had in your life to spend worrying about a machine and a process that you would have done well to forget about long ago. When your life is done, you can look back on it and say, "I spent about 20 years of my life talking to people about the polygraph. What a great life."


During the first four years after the FBI falsely branded me a liar, I did indeed simply move on with my life. It was only after finding out that what happened to me is also happening to many others that I felt compelled to speak publicly on polygraph matters. I have no regrets about the time I've spent telling others the truth about lie detectors. It has already given me much greater satisfaction than a lifetime spent administering these pseudoscientific tests ever could.

Wink
  

George W. Maschke
I am generally available in the chat room from 3 AM to 3 PM Eastern time.
Tel/SMS: 1-202-810-2105 (Please use Signal Private Messenger or WhatsApp to text or call.)
E-mail/iMessage/FaceTime: antipolygraph.org@protonmail.com
Wire: @ap_org
Threema: A4PYDD5S
Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"
Back to top
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box Sergeant1107
God Member
*****
Offline



Posts: 730
Location: Connecticut, USA
Joined: May 21st, 2005
Gender: Male
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #31 - Nov 28th, 2006 at 10:48am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
I am currently a patrol sergeant with a municipal department in Connecticut.  My experiences with the polygraph include failing my first three pre-employment exams, all for different reasons.  In each one the examiner would look me in the eye and solemnly tell me that they were the real lie detector, and the machine was just a tool.

Shortly thereafter they would look me in the eye and say they could easily tell I was not being truthful about selling cocaine, assaulting people, and stealing (from first test to third, respectively.)

Since I knew then and I know now that I was telling the complete truth and not withholding any information, I was completely baffled as to how such a mistake could be made.  That it happened three times for three different subjects was even more baffling.

In my fourth test I gave all the same answers and this time was told I had passed.  

Given my experiences I have no reason to believe that every other law enforcement applicant is not treated with the same sort of guessing game on their pre-employment polygraph.  Examiners can write how they believe that they are X% accurate in their tests, but they honestly cannot know precisely who was being deceptive and who wasn’t.  They can guess, and they can make what I’m sure they call educated guesses based on their training and experience, but they cannot know.

I know I was truthful and was labeled deceptive.  I know I was truthful on all four of my polygraph exams and was labeled deceptive on the first three.  I don’t have to make an educated guess about whether I was telling the truth or not – I know I was.

None of the examiners on this site can swear to the accuracy of the polygraph with the same conviction with which I can swear to its inaccuracy.
  

Lorsque vous utilisez un argumentum ad hominem, tout le monde sait que vous êtes intellectuellement faillite.
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #32 - Nov 30th, 2006 at 12:06am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Holy sheeeet, Batman! Why don't we all just talk at once? I occasionally read this forum, and less frequently contributed to it than I have for the past couple of weeks, but now I see that I am capable of stirring the anti-polygraph pot very well indeed with my posts. But I can't possibly respond to everything all of you have written. So much of what you have written would require me to simply rehash previous posts, which in turn would lead to other responses that would require me to rehash previous posts, ad nauseum. If I choose a particular question or point, I will be accused of avoiding another or not having an answer, since on this forum polygraph examiners are apparently expected to field every question posed and every idea raised. In this way, we rare polygraph examiners on this website can hardly get a word in edgewise without being bombarded by all of the anti- folks in an apparent effort simply to overwelm us into silence and fill cyberspace with so much anti- cyberbabble that the casual, openminded reader can't help but be swayed by the sheer weight of anti- responses. Rather than take the time to reply to everything and thereby let this website be my life as it is George's, I will simply take the responses in order (assuming they don't require me to simply rehash my earlier posts), and I'll start with this one, since it is the most interesting one:

meangino wrote on Nov 28th, 2006 at 12:24am:


If God created an imperfect world. does that excuse man for his mistakes, such as employing a "truth telling" device that has an accuracy rate similar to entrails reading?

LBCB, since you believe women have no place in law enforcement, what other trades and professions do you believe women should not practice?  
a. Surgery?
b. airline pilots?
c.  military fighter pilots?
d.  beautician?
e.  military police?
f.  The Congress?

No doubt, LBCB has been exposed for his sexist views.


Hmmm. If God created the imperfect world, does that excuse man for his mistakes . . . 

Yes, it does. God created imperfection, including the imperfect man, so even God should not expect perfection from His/Her imperfect creations. That's an easy one.

As for women being the following:

Surgeons=yes.

Airline Pilots=yes.

Military fighter pilots=yes, unless it's YOUR mom, sister, daughter or wife.

Beautician=yes, although women are inferior in this department to gay men.   Wink

Military Police=No, if it includes any situation where she is not backed up by stronger men.

Congress=yes.

See, LBCB is not that sexist after all.   Kiss


« Last Edit: Nov 30th, 2006 at 12:36am by LieBabyCryBaby »  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box digithead
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 150
Joined: Apr 11th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #33 - Nov 30th, 2006 at 3:32am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
LCBC, care to respond to this one?

And again, congratulations on your promotion to senior user on the forum...


digithead wrote on Nov 28th, 2006 at 5:32am:


LCBC, 

False positives and negatives are a function of both the accuracy and the base rate of what you're trying to detect... 

If your beloved polygraph has only 90% accuracy, it doesn't matter what you believe, reality wills out...

If the base rate of deception is low, you will have a significant amount of false positives (e.g., employment screening)...
 
If the base rate of deception is high, you will have a significant amount of false negatives (e.g., sex offenders)...

The only time these balance out is if the base rate of deception is 50%. Surely you can't believe that 50% of all applicants for law enforcement are lying or that only 50% of sex offenders are lying. You're only deceiving yourself if you believe otherwise...

In addition, the rest of your comparisons of the polygraph failure to illdone medical procedures, acts of god, or mechanical failure are simply misdirection. A better comparison would be to medical screening which has significantly better methods (e.g., independent sequential testing, more accurate tests) to reduce the occurence of false positives and negative to your wishful thinking of below 1/1,000,000...

You can tap dance all you want and claim that only experience matters, but the laws of probability are pretty much immutable. Not only does the CQT polygraph have no scientific basis, its self proclaimed accuracy reduces its usefulness to nil...


  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #34 - Nov 30th, 2006 at 7:05pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Digithead,

If you are going to address me, at least get the acronym right.

It isn't your turn yet. Tell you what, though . . . If Dr. Richardson, the only experienced "expert" on this website of whom I am aware, will answer the question I posed for him at least two weeks ago, I will answer yours, even if it means rehashing things I and other polygraph examiners have posted regarding false positives, false negatives, etc. You see, with all the anti- people on this website, you each have the luxury of batting me fly balls all at the same time, while I can only catch one at a time. Here's the question again for Dr. R:

As a polygrapher, with all of your experience, did you ever catch an examinee using countermeasures, and if so, how did you know prior to any admission by the examinee?

Oh, and as a new "Senior User," thanks for the kudos. I never aspired to them, but I'll take my bow and hear my applause while I can.   Cheesy

  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box day2day
New User
*
Offline



Posts: 24
Joined: Mar 3rd, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #35 - Nov 30th, 2006 at 7:20pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
I see I'm next in line.  I patiently await your response.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #36 - Dec 3rd, 2006 at 4:43am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
day2day wrote on Nov 28th, 2006 at 2:01am:
LBCB,

Let's play hypothetical for a moment.  Let's say you had aspirations of becoming a peace officer.  Everything went well in the first phases, you have kept your background in good shape, scored well on the written and aced the fitness evaluation.  Things are looking good.  Then you come to a polygraph examination, you have relatively little to no idea why or how it works but no reason to believe it does not work as claimed.  A week or so goes by and then you get a letter telling you your application has been discontinued and later you find out you failed your polygraph exam.  You know in your heart of hearts that you told the truth.  How can this be?  Can you honestly say you would not find that to be incredible?  Can you honestly say you wouldn't be pissed off?  Can you honestly say that your first impression would not be lasting?  Can you honestly say that you would not feel that you were done a disservice?  Can you honestly say you would tell yourself, "Hmm, that sucks, guess I'll just move on to something else and figure that I am an acceptable loss and they'll find someone else to fill that position I really wanted.  Oh, well?"

If you answer 'yes' to any of those questions, you'll be lying. Wink


day2day,

If that happened to me, I would indeed be upset. But just because it happened to you, or even happened to a few people on this website doesn't mean it happens a lot. People bring up the FBI's polygraph failure rate. Well, one thing FBI does is consider anything other than actually passing the exam a failure. That means that to pass, you gotta pass, not just come close. I don't agree with this way of doing exams, and I certainly don't agree with making the polygraph the deciding factor in hiring a person. It's supposed to be a useful screening tool, and any agency that uses it as the most important part of the screening process is lying to itself. If it isn't 100% accurate--and I maintain that it is around 90%--then it isn't a perfect process that you should always hang your hat on.

Now, if what you describe actually happened to you, you have a right to be pissed off. But you can either go on with your life and say, "Those are the unfair breaks," or you can devote years and years of your life as George does to talking about a machine and a process and an event in your life that are better off left behind.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box digithead
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 150
Joined: Apr 11th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #37 - Dec 3rd, 2006 at 10:48pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
LieBabyCryBaby wrote on Dec 3rd, 2006 at 4:43am:


day2day,

If that happened to me, I would indeed be upset. But just because it happened to you, or even happened to a few people on this website doesn't mean it happens a lot. People bring up the FBI's polygraph failure rate. Well, one thing FBI does is consider anything other than actually passing the exam a failure. That means that to pass, you gotta pass, not just come close. I don't agree with this way of doing exams, and I certainly don't agree with making the polygraph the deciding factor in hiring a person. It's supposed to be a useful screening tool, and any agency that uses it as the most important part of the screening process is lying to itself. If it isn't 100% accurate--and I maintain that it is around 90%--then it isn't a perfect process that you should always hang your hat on.

Now, if what you describe actually happened to you, you have a right to be pissed off. But you can either go on with your life and say, "Those are the unfair breaks," or you can devote years and years of your life as George does to talking about a machine and a process and an event in your life that are better off left behind.


So by your own estimation of 90% accuracy, you will have 10% false positives and 10% false negatives. That means if the base rate of deception is small, you will have a high number of false positives and if the base rate of deception is high, you will have a high number of false negatives...

Let's do the math again and assume 1% of the people are lying. If you screen 1000 people, 10 people will be lying and you'll detect 9 of them and have 1 false negative. But that means 990 people are not lying, you'll pass 891 of them and 99 will be false positives...

So for every person you correctly identify as deceptive, 10 will be falsely accused. In other words, there's a more than 90% chance that if a person is identified as deceptive, they're actually telling the truth. So tell me again how useful the polygraph is in screening...

Regardless of what you believe or I believe regarding the lack of science behind the polygraph, screening for employment, security, or post-conviction supervision with an instrument that has 90% accuracy is stupid because it has too many false positives or negatives that pose security threats or demolish career opportunities...
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #38 - Dec 4th, 2006 at 8:48pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Digithead,

I'm not ignoring you, but just trying to figure out your math. You've got 110% in your first paragraph. Where you get the 1% are lying, I don't know. And you fail to take into account the inconclusives that would be in that 1000 people you are screening. I'm too tired first thing on Monday morning to decipher exactly what you mean, but I'll give it a shot in the near future.   ???
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box digithead
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 150
Joined: Apr 11th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #39 - Dec 4th, 2006 at 9:53pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
No, it's not 110%. Accuracy is actually four items, two of which most people think define accuracy: sensitivity and specificity. Sensitivity is the probability that a test will be positive if the condition is present. Specificity is the probability that a test will be negative if the condition is absent. You're claiming accuracy of 90% so I just made sensitivity and specificity equal or both 90%. So that means you will get 10% false negatives and 10% false positives. In other words, 10% of your results are false. Do you follow me now? 

The 1% base rate assumes that out of the mythical 1000 people that will be tests, 1% will be lying. We can make it any value, I used 1% because the numbers work cleanly to demonstrate the problem. 

However, true accuracy takes into account two different measure, the positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV). These measures are the true yardsticks of accuracy. Because in reality, we never really know if someone has a condition or not, so we want to know the probability that someone has (or doesn't have) the condition given that the test is positive (or negative). Do you follow this? 

Sensitivity and specificity are independent of the base rate; PPV and NPV are not. With a 90% sensitivity and specificity, the best PPV and NPV you can hope for is 90%. This occurs only when the base rate is 50% or half of the people you test have the condition. When the base rate is low, you will have a poor PPV and high false positive rate. When the base rate is high, you will have a poor NPV and high false negative rate.

And you don't have to trust my numbers, check out any biostatistics textbooks because they use PPV and NPV to demonstrate Bayes Theorem.

So again, do you really believe that 50% of people applying for LEO jobs are deceptive? Or that only 50% of sex offenders are deceptive? Because that's the only way you'll be 90% correct given your stated accuracy.

And if the base rate is quite low, 1% in my example, with 90% sensitivity, for every correct deception you identify, you will falsely accuse 11 of lying. Beyond the lack of science behind CQT, this is the crux of the NAS report.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #40 - Dec 4th, 2006 at 11:38pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Digithead,

I am beginning to see why you chose the name "digithead." Biostatistics and Bayes Theorem are interesting, and it sounds quite impressive the way you explain it. I certainly wouldn't want to study either one in college unless I had insomnia. Simply dealing with a cost/benefit analysis might better explain the way agencies look at polygraph testing, don't you think? Screening processes are just that--they screen. They take a large number of potential employees and narrow it down to a smaller number. The polygraph is widely accepted by law enforcement agencies as a good screening tool, and we could speculate on many reasons for this. But the bottom line is that when agencies view a screening process--any screening process--as 90% accurate, that's good enough for them. As for the other 10% of potential employees, any true false positives or false negatives are the cost, while the 90% are the benefit. It doesn't matter how many among that 10% are false positives or how many are false negatives in screening exams. If they feel they are right 90% of the time, that's considered damn good.  They might miss something in the background investigation too, but that would be another cost vs. the greater benefit of being 90% sure.

If you were one of the 10% cost, and you didn't deserve to be, that's still an acceptable loss to the agencies when, say, 100 applicants don't get the job for every one who does. Biostatistics aside, it's simply a matter of effective screening.  If you're the agency doing the hiring, it simply ensures that 90% of the people they do hire are the kind of employees they want.
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box digithead
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 150
Joined: Apr 11th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #41 - Dec 5th, 2006 at 1:04am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Any process that is only correct 1 out of every 12 times is not an accurate process, no matter how you spin it.

But since you want to talk about opportunity costs, fine. Let's say 99% of sex offenders lie. With your 90% accuracy, you will correctly identify 1 out of every 12 as truthful. But 11 will go undetected and continue offending. Do you want to be the one to explain to a mother after their child is molested that they're an opportunity cost? Since you've already indicated that falselyaccused should buck up and get on with their lives, perhaps that's your advice for the mother and victim...

Notwithstanding its lack of scientific status, CQT polygraph is not accurate enough to be used for a screening tool in any capacity.

In addition, within your 10% opportunity costs of potential employees, there could be several of them that were the most outstanding candidates. Take George for instance, he had ably served his country and his Arabic language skills would have made him the ideal candidate in the war on terror. But he was one of your opportunity costs. How many Arabic language specialists do you think there are? The polygraph kept him from helping our country. But I guess that's just the cost of doing business...
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #42 - Dec 6th, 2006 at 7:53pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Digithead,

I simply don't follow your numbers. Sorry. If a process is accurate 90% of the time, that doesn't equate to being correct only 1 out of 12 times. Perhaps you have a theorem that accounts for this. If not, I'm sure you will at least make it sound impressive.

Here's an interesting article about forensic "science."

http://men.msn.com/articlepm.aspx?cp-documentid=808224&GT1=8883

Most people don't realize it, but many of the forensic tools used in police work aren't as accurate as shows like "CSI" would have us believe.  There aren't very many of them that you could stake a case on and be 100% sure of making the right call. As a district attorney is quoted in the article, "Hair analysis, fiber analysis, bite marks--you don't want to base too much of a case on those. Some prosecutors succumb to the temptation to rest their case on a fiber or a hair. But a good case is made up of a bunch of little things."  Even fingerprints are said to be inaccurate a significant percentage of the time.

But would we throw out these methods that are not 100% accurate, and use eyewitness testimony alone?--Which, by the way is also nowhere near 100% accurate.

I will agree with any "anti-" person on this forum that polygraph charts alone should not determine guilt or whether a person should be hired for a job. But knowing from experience that the polygraph is usually right, I would also argue, as many agencies do, that we should keep it as a useful tool, despite the fact that it is not 100% accurate. Remember, those of you who claim to be "false positives": In law enforcement you use the best tools you have until something better comes along. If you pass the screening process and get the law enforcement job you want, you will in fact be using many of those same tools that are not 100% accurate, thereby creating your own "false positive" victims while you're right most of the time, not all of the time. Ironic, then, that many of you who want those law enforcement jobs are sitting here arguing against an imperfect law enforcement tool that is widely accepted, by many, many people and agencies, as one of those good tools.
« Last Edit: Dec 6th, 2006 at 9:35pm by LieBabyCryBaby »  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box digithead
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 150
Joined: Apr 11th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #43 - Dec 6th, 2006 at 11:32pm
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
LieBabyCryBaby wrote on Dec 6th, 2006 at 7:53pm:
Digithead,

I simply don't follow your numbers. Sorry. If a process is accurate 90% of the time, that doesn't equate to being correct only 1 out of 12 times. Perhaps you have a theorem that accounts for this. If not, I'm sure you will at least make it sound impressive.


Nope, it's not impressive, it just requires the ability to do arithmetic. Understanding fractions and percentages would help too...

So to reiterate, they are called positive predictive value (PPV) and negative predictive value (NPV).

PPV is the probability that a person has the condition given that the test is positive. 

With your example of 90% accuracy and assuming 1% of the population is deceptive and 99% are truthful. If we have 1000 examinees, this means 10 are deceptive and 990 are truthful. 

That means you will have .9x10=9 true positives and 1 false negative. Notice the sneaky conversion from percents to decimals.

It also also means you will have .9x990=891 true negatives and 990-891=99 false positives. Ah, substraction, addition's tricky friend.

So the total of true and false positives in this example is 9+99=108 total positives. Are you still with me?

That means your PPV=9/108=8.3% probability that the person is deceptive given that the test is positive. Great accuracy if the test is positive.

Warning, division coming up. 

In other words, 99/9=11 people will be falsely accused for every person correctly identified. To put it another way, 1 out of every 12 positives (11 false + 1 true positive) will be correct. 

That's some fancy arithmetic, wouldn't you say? 

If the base rate is 99% instead, the numbers come out the same for false negatives.

LieBabyCryBaby wrote on Dec 6th, 2006 at 7:53pm:

Here's an interesting article about forensic "science."

http://men.msn.com/articlepm.aspx?cp-documentid=808224>1=8883

Most people don't realize it, but many of the forensic tools used in police work aren't as accurate as shows like "CSI" would have us believe.  There aren't very many of them that you could stake a case on and be 100% sure of making the right call. As a district attorney is quoted in the article, "Hair analysis, fiber analysis, bite marks--you don't want to base too much of a case on those. Some prosecutors succumb to the temptation to rest their case on a fiber or a hair. But a good case is made up of a bunch of little things."  Even fingerprints are said to be inaccurate a significant percentage of the time.

But would we throw out these methods that are not 100% accurate, and use eyewitness testimony alone?--Which, by the way is also nowhere near 100% accurate.


I absolutely agree. But we can pursue more accurate methods, discard ones that don't work, seek supporting evidence that in totality reduces error and continously improve the system through science. The CQT polygraph is not based on science and will never get more accurate, therefore it should be discarded...

LieBabyCryBaby wrote on Dec 6th, 2006 at 7:53pm:

I will agree with any "anti-" person on this forum that polygraph charts alone should not determine guilt or whether a person should be hired for a job. But knowing from experience that the polygraph is usually right, I would also argue, as many agencies do, that we should keep it as a useful tool, despite the fact that it is not 100% accurate. Remember, those of you who claim to be "false positives": In law enforcement you use the best tools you have until something better comes along. If you pass the screening process and get the law enforcement job you want, you will in fact be using many of those same tools that are not 100% accurate, thereby creating your own "false positive" victims while you're right most of the time, not all of the time. Ironic, then, that many of you who want those law enforcement jobs are sitting here arguing against an imperfect law enforcement tool that is widely accepted, by many, many people and agencies, as one of those good tools.


If one million people do a foolish thing, it's still a foolish thing...
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box LieBabyCryBaby
Very Senior User
****
Offline



Posts: 246
Joined: Apr 28th, 2006
Re: Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the t
Reply #44 - Dec 7th, 2006 at 4:02am
Mark & QuoteQuote Print Post  
Digithead,

You can be condescending and spout all the complicated math that you want, but it makes no difference. It's all very basic, not complicated. If we test 100 people, and we are correct 90% of the time, we can be wrong 10% of the time and it doesn't matter. From the viewpoint of the powers that be in most agencies, a screening process that gets it right 90% of the time, or even 80% of the time, does what it is supposed to do--it screens. 

So, let's assume that out of that 100 people we get 90 right and 10 wrong. Of course any agency is going to hope that all of those 10 wrong are false positives, not false negatives. Why? Because that is simply 10 people who don't get the job. But if 10 false negatives get the job, then an agency has 10 out of 100 people on the job who got through the process despite having various relevant issues to hide--the issues the agency cares about most. Screening out 10 false positives is simply the cost of doing business, you see. What they don't want are criminals working for them. Where those 10 false positives came from, there are plenty of other qualified candidates to choose from. If you want to raise those 10 false positives to 20, then it's not as attractive, but still an agency will have 80% of its employees who are the type of employees the agency wants.

Now, of course we want to look for the most accurate screening methods we can find. But looking and finding are two different things. While we are looking, we use what we have. Before DNA, we used what we had, despite whatever inaccuracies, simply because we needed to use something, right? And I still don't think law enforcement agencies are ready to give up on fingerprinting or ballistics or eyewitness accounts, for example, simply because they aren't 100% accurate.  Neither are they willing to give up on the polygraph when it is one of those useful tools and the best thing currently available.

Finally, one million people doing the wrong thing doesn't make it right. But when those one million people are doing a very tough job, they use the best tools they have, and they'll keep using them until someone invents something better. Got any inventions in mind, Digithead?
  
Back to top
 
IP Logged
 
Page Index Toggle Pages: 1 2 [3] 4 5 
ReplyAdd Poll Send TopicPrint
Should I lie to beat the machine or tell the truth

Please type the characters that appear in the image. The characters must be typed in the same order, and they are case-sensitive.
Open Preview Preview

You can resize the textbox by dragging the right or bottom border.
Insert Hyperlink Insert FTP Link Insert Image Insert E-mail Insert Media Insert Table Insert Table Row Insert Table Column Insert Horizontal Rule Insert Teletype Insert Code Insert Quote Edited Superscript Subscript Insert List /me - my name Insert Marquee Insert Timestamp No Parse
Bold Italicized Underline Insert Strikethrough Highlight
                       
Change Text Color
Insert Preformatted Text Left Align Centered Right Align
resize_wb
resize_hb







Max 200000 characters. Remaining characters:
Text size: pt
More Smilies
View All Smilies
Collapse additional features Collapse/Expand additional features Smiley Wink Cheesy Grin Angry Sad Shocked Cool Huh Roll Eyes Tongue Embarrassed Lips Sealed Undecided Kiss Cry
Attachments More Attachments Allowed file types: txt doc docx ics psd pdf bmp jpe jpg jpeg gif png swf zip rar tar gz 7z odt ods mp3 mp4 wav avi mov 3gp html maff pgp gpg
Maximum Attachment size: 500000 KB
Attachment 1:
X