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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale (Read 27709 times)
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #15 - Sep 13th, 2006 at 6:15am
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I am enjoying the parley between digit and retcopper, while once again realizing that Geroge has the only cogent message in this thread:

I will repeat the basic failings of the poly:

It does not detect anything.  It is a cool biofeedback machine that measures certain physiological changes and levels.  You could say it suggests that something -might- be up, but it proves nothing, and may only be showing stress or revulsion.  The happy endings come when the post-test interrogation geared toward the abnormal stress readings produces something.  If these perverts, and all other crooks, know the lie behind the poly, then it becomes worthless...

It is sad whenever a criminal uses info from this site to beat a poly, I submit.  However, other, bigger, and more frequent harms occur such that the lie must be exposed, as should all black lies.

Again, the only way that a poly ever works is if the subject buys into it and confesses.  If they deny everything, then you have nothing.  Incidentally, I tend to doubt some of these stories where people claim they would be violated if they failed, or are violated if they come back inconclusive a certain # of times.  I wonder if some of those persons aren't deep cover polyboys... you could contest such a violation from here to Mars and back 8)

I think we all know the lie behind all this.  I will be the first to argue disutility, also.  This polygraph lie will only provoke lies in return, which is the standard slippery slope.  I advocate, as always, that this clunker be retired... all lies are shameful...
  

Polygraphers escaped from among the evils of Pandora's box, which might have been an old analog polygraph... only God can tell whether you're lying or not, and He's got other things on His plate...
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #16 - Sep 13th, 2006 at 5:40pm
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Digithead:

If the polygraph results keep the guy from being released you comolain. If the test frees him you still complain.  Which way do you want it?  Sorry, but as good as we, are the polygraph cannot predict  the future. The plolygraph is only one component of the containment program so if you want to place blame how about pointing the finger at the other parties involved. I dont think I missed the point. The thrust of your post was that the polygrapher should be blamed.  IMHO the Judge also bears some resonsibility.  And of course, although not politically correct to say this this,  don;t you think just a little blame should go to the doer.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #17 - Sep 14th, 2006 at 3:31am
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retcopper wrote on Sep 13th, 2006 at 5:40pm:
Digithead:

If the polygraph results keep the guy from being released you comolain. If the test frees him you still complain.  Which way do you want it?  Sorry, but as good as we, are the polygraph cannot predict  the future. The plolygraph is only one component of the containment program so if you want to place blame how about pointing the finger at the other parties involved. I dont think I missed the point. The thrust of your post was that the polygrapher should be blamed.  IMHO the Judge also bears some resonsibility.  And of course, although not politically correct to say this this,  don;t you think just a little blame should go to the doer.


Duncan will get the death penalty, so he will be punished for his deeds. However, all of the problems and mistakes that occurred that allowed him to continue offending need to be examined so that they can be prevented or mitigated in future cases. As I've stated previously, lack of information sharing between jurisdictions, an overworked parole system, and lack of adequate monitoring were all culprits...

But I blame the initial reliance on the polygraph because it gave a false sense of security which predicated all of what followed...

The polygraph should be abandoned in all of its uses in law enforcement because it's pseudoscience which ruins careers and threatens national security/public safety...
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #18 - Sep 14th, 2006 at 6:06am
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Duncan was subsequently caught on a fugitive warrant and sent back to prison on his parole violations of illegal contact with children, a failed drug test, and absconding.


Why wasn’t he polygraphed again after being caught?  Doesn’t the pro-polygraph crowd think they might have been able to get him to admit to the Anthony Martinez murder if he had been polygraphed?  Did those involved in the case just assume he was on his best behavior while running from the police?


Quote:
A psychological review in 2000 found that while Duncan was a Level III high-risk offender


Perhaps the APA should put out a disclaimer that polygraph testing doesn’t prevent high-risk sex offenders from re-offending?  At best, it might catch them, but only after they have committed another crime. (as nonombre stated, the polygraph does not predict the future)  Instead, polygraphers prefer to exaggerate the accuracy of their test, which no doubt helps to mislead judicial systems into over-reliance on the polygraph test.  If polygraphers were more forthright about the limitations of their test, perhaps criminals would not be let out into society on the false hope that a polygraph machine will keep them in line.

Quote:
Duncan is also suspected in a number of homicides and assaults in Washington State during his three years on parole between 1994 and 1997….  However, [the polygraph tests given during this time period] failed to detect his most serious offenses and instead focused only on minor violations.


I’m just joining these quotes for those that seem to think the polygraph successfully caught Duncan in 1997.  There’s a good chance that Duncan was killing people and still passed multiple polygraphs.
« Last Edit: Sep 14th, 2006 at 7:07am by Onesimus »  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #19 - Jan 19th, 2007 at 9:41am
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Although CQT polygraphy has no validity as a diagnostic test for truth or deception, based on the available evidence, I think an argument could be made that the case of Joseph Duncan is an example of the utility of polygraph screening.


Post-conviction polygraphy is like waterboarding at Guantanamo (or any other form of government torture): it is useful, in that it can elicit confessions.

I believe this is the spirit in which it is being used presently in the USA: its practictioners/supporters are well aware that it has no diagnostic validity in discerning truth from lies; and they don't care.

They just want confessions.

They also take for granted - and don't care - that innocents  are swept-up in their polygraphic fishing expeditions.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #20 - Jul 9th, 2007 at 4:22pm
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Seems like the real issue is that Duncan was given a 2nd chance to terrorise society.
To my mind, he should have been shot when he was first caught. Sexual offenders get
worse or get clever. They dont get 'better' (cured)

If the authorities insist on using a polygraph on a sexual offender, then it should only
be as a means with which to bash the sob's head in.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #21 - Jul 10th, 2007 at 9:56am
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To my mind, he should have been shot when he was first caught. Sexual offenders get worse or get clever. They dont get 'better' (cured)
1904,  I have been a big fan of your posts for the past month or so and have been following the action on this site for several years.

Although I normally agree with much of what you post, I must call BS on this particular post.  In spite of the generally accepted societal hysteria when discussing sex offenders (of any classification), studies have shown that recidivism rates for child molesters are typically lower than the recidivism rate of other types of criminals.

At some point in the near future, we as a society MUST learn to behave rationally and discuss the serious issue of sex offenders in a manner that will allow progress in treatment, housing, awareness, etc. WITHOUT simply condemning offenders to death.

While I agree that VIOLENT OFFENDERS and REPEAT OFFENDERS and HIGH LEVEL RISKS should be segregated from the innocent, we must also agree that treatment is an option for first-time offenders and that the chance of success is actually quite high.

In one 10 year study of Recidivism rates of sex offenders, it was shown that the recommitment for a new crime is 22%, of which 14% are NON-SEX offenses.  The TOTAL SEX-RELATED recidivism rate, including technical violations of supervision conditions was 11%.

Among sex offenders recidivism rates for rapists (with adult victims) is 17.5% while the rate of re-offense for extra-familial child molesters is 8.7%.  The same study shows that those offenders who receive treatment while incarcerated are apt to re-offend at a significantly lower rate.

Let me conclude by pointing out that I am not a child molester, I am not a rapist or a sexual deviant.  I am simply someone who sees through the hysteria.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #22 - Jul 10th, 2007 at 11:07am
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Hello Casual Bystander;

My post was emotionally fuelled. No question. But the background to that:
I was the victim of sexual offenders three times in my youth. At the age of
ten, a family friend put his hand between my legs - my father sorted him out.
At 13 yrs, a man tried to corner me in a public toilet - I shouted and a friend
came to assist me - we manged to chase him out - he had tried to strangle
me - this incident was extremely disturbing. At 15yrs, I was hiking home after
school - a man picked me up and put his hand on my crotch. I punched him
out when he stopped at a red light.

My niece's 4 yr old daughter was molested at kindergarten last year, by a 50+
yr old handyman. She still has nightmares.

My teenage daughter was stalked on holiday and cornered in a bathroom at
a hotel in Palm Springs. She was very traumatised.

During my p/g years, every single suspect sexual offender that i tested,
failed and there was no doubt in my mind that they had failed because
they were guilty. Full Stop.

So when I say, hit the sob's with the poly - it is a knee-jerk reaction.

But it would be great thing to do. I have no time for sexual offenders or
pedophiles. Usually by the time they become suspects for a p/g test they
are already well into it.

BTW - I cant argue your recidivism stats - because I dont have any. But
I do wonder what they would look like if one had to add the numbers of
unsolved sex attacks and murders (unknown crimes committed by paroled  offenders)......food for thought.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #23 - Jul 10th, 2007 at 12:14pm
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Please don't mistake my post as acceptance of sexual offenders or an attempt to diminish the seriousness of the crimes.  Thank God you were able to cut short any attempts at molestation in your youth and I will pray for your niece's daughter.

As the father of two children aged 9 (boy) and 6 (girl) I am always vigilant when they are around other adults and adolescents.  God help the person I ever suspect of touching either of my children.

My involvement in this thread is only to inject a bit of reality.  I don't believe that everyone that fails the poly is guilty, just as I don't believe that everyone who passes is innocent.  I don't believe that every person accused of molestation is guilty, just as I don't believe that everyone who professes innocence is innocent.  There are some truly disturbed individuals walking the streets and it is our responsibility to protect our children from them.

By the same token, there are also mixed up people who make mistakes.  Maybe the judgement is bad, or their reasoning centers of the brain don't function properly.  Maybe they are dealing with stresses that affect their reasoning, or they don't have the ability to understand the consequences of their actions.  It also could be that they were molested as young children and are repeating their experience.

We have to come to a point as a society where the topic of sexual molestation can be approached rationally.  Making blanket statements that all sex offenders should be killed or castrated or tortured will only contribute to the hysteria and serve to force offenders even further into their morass.  How can a beginning offender seek the help needed to control their urges if they are certain to face an angry lynch mob?

It is commonly accepted in scientific circles that a majority of victims of abuse go on to become abusers later in life.  If our collective stance is that all molesters should be killed, we might as well kill the victims as well in order to prevent them from offending as they mature.  In this way we can stop the cycle of victimization/abuse.  <--- facetious remark
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #24 - Jul 10th, 2007 at 2:28pm
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To Casual Bystander,

I think that your position and the rationale you present are solid.
Correct? Maybe.

The treatment (and success thereof) of offenders and victims is one that could be debated forever
without 100% agreement and without us ever really knowing all the answers.
Human behaviour will never be reliably predictable.

But you did put your points across very well.
Smiley
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #25 - Jul 10th, 2007 at 5:22pm
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Agreed...we may never know if my position is correct.  The human psyche can be a dark and disturbing place.  I find it interesting that our most violent and twisted criminals, even mass murderers have the moral high ground on those that they perceive to be child molesters.

It is such a touchy subject...as stated above I would lose all rationale if I found that someone was harming my children.
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #26 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 7:08pm
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Update on the Joseph Duncan case - he was sentenced to death in federal court yesterday for the kidnapping, torture, and murder of 9-year-old Dylan Groene. He had already pled guilty in Idaho for the murder of Dylan's family and the rape and kidnapping of his sister Shasta. CNN has a good summary of the case:

http://www.cnn.com/2008/CRIME/08/27/duncan.death.ap/index.html

Duncan's case demonstrates the futility of post-conviction polygraph as it failed to detect his most serious offense(s). Duncan admitted that he murdered two sisters from Seattle during while he was on parole in the mid-90s. He took multiple polygraph tests as a condition of his parole and because these so-called tests failed to detect his crimes, five more people lost their lives and a little girl's life has been shattered. There may be additional victims of this monster that have yet to be uncovered.

Most of the anti- people here complain about false positives, I worry about the false negatives. So I ask the question again, how many more Joseph Duncans are out there getting away with rape and murder because we rely on this pseudoscience to catch them?
  
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #27 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 9:03pm
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digithead

How would you catch them?
  

No good social purpose can be served by inventing ways of beating the lie detector or deceiving polygraphers.   David Thoreson Lykken
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #28 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 10:24pm
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Digithead:
Duncan Timeline
Convicted 1980 for raping a 14 year old boy and paroled in 1994
Polygraph on 1/17/95 Passed
Polygraph on 5/17/95 Passed
Polygraph on 9/14/95 Passed
He violated his parole in 1996 by using marijuana and getting caught, and for possession of a firearm.
Polygraph on 6/11/96 Passed
July 1996 first murders Sammiejo White, 11, and Carmen Cubias, 9 Bodies found 2 years later
Deborah Palmer, 7-years-old March 26,1997 disappears Her body was found 5 days later
Polygraph on 3/26/97 Failed
Then he is on the run
Next possible murder Anthony Martinez disappeared on April 4, 1997.

Although Information on the internet is sketchy I have not found any information alleging that this monster passed a single polygraph after committing a murder.

If you have something substantive in this regard please post your source.

Sancho Panza
  

Quand vous citez des langues que vous ne parlez pas afin de sembler intellegent, vous vous avérez seulement que votre tête est gonflée mais videz.
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Re: Joseph Duncan: A Cautionary Tale
Reply #29 - Aug 28th, 2008 at 11:41pm
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The failed polygraph after the murders got Duncan to admit that he smoked pot which would've been detected with a UA. Seems that he was able to manipulate the polygrapher in his favor away from his real crimes. Hence, the polygrapher failed to detect Duncan's more serious crimes which allowed him to commit further murders. Face it, Duncan was a false negative no matter how you spin it. He suckered the system and tricked the polygrapher into thinking he had done nothing more serious than smoke pot which created a false sense of security.

As for something more substantial, how about a quote from the monster himself which he said in his closing arguments earlier this week, "You people really don't have any clue yet of the true heinousness of what I've done."  

By the way, Duncan created an encrypted diary that contains all of his criminal acts. The FBI hasn't cracked it yet but it's just a matter of time before all of his crimes come to light. Do you really want to bet that Duncan didn't do other things while on parole that the polygraph/polygrapher also missed?

Lastly, it's a false dichotomy to suggest that I have to come up with something "better" than the polygraph. To me, expunging this pseudoscience from law enforcement is better as we will no longer be relying on wishful thinking and make-believe security.

The polygraph is great example of routine activities theory: suitable targets, motivated offenders, and lack of capable guardians. With countermeasures employed by motivated offenders to easily manipulate the test (i.e.., lack of capable guardian), it's no wonder people like Duncan can rape and murder until they get caught the old-fashioned way.
  
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