Boston wrote on Mar 6
th, 2006 at 7:01am:
According to most of the misinformed and brainwashed on the message board you have a 50 50 % chance of winning.
Misinformed and brainwashed? -- Well that's still nicer than a lot of the things polygraphers have said to me. Or am I not among those who you consider misinformed and brainwashed?
Boston wrote on Mar 6
th, 2006 at 7:01am:
That always made me laugh 50 / 50
I don't buy the 50/50 stuff either. How can you put a number on something like the polygraph's accuracy? Every test that I take is conducted in a unique manner, which presumably means my odds of passing changes each time. Based on what I'm told during my tests, I get a sense that most polygraphers don't trust the way most other polygraphers conduct their exams.
Boston wrote on Mar 6
th, 2006 at 7:01am:
That would mean that 50 % of the people that are saying/whining "I took the polygraph and failed, and was telling the truth" are lying themselves according to those numbers. Which 50 % are you in I wonder.
Boston wrote on Mar 6
th, 2006 at 9:18pm:
What I am saying is that there is a good chance based on the "toss of the coin" theory that at least 50 % of the people that are saying that they failed a poly and told the truth are lying on this message board.
The math is rather simple.
The math is rather simple, but in order to get to 50% of the people on this board being liars you have to make some additional assumptions. For example, you could make the following two assumptions:
Half the examiness are lying.
People who failed the test while lying are just as likely to post "that they failed a poly and told the truth" as those who failed the test while telling the truth.
However, if you make the following assumptions:
20% of the examiness are lying.
People who failed the test while lying are half as likely to post "that they failed a poly and told the truth" as those who failed the test while telling the truth.
Then, the number drops to 11% of the people who are lying.
Also, interesting to not that you wrote "at least 50%" rather than 50%, nice spinning.
Oh, and how bout telling us what percentage of people who passed their polygraph exams and never post on this site were completely truthfull? And what percentage of polygraphers are truthfull during the test?
Boston wrote on Mar 6
th, 2006 at 9:18pm:
As far as you go, I am not accusing you of lying.... I pointed the finger at no one, but the idea that you took issue with it makes me wonder. The odds don't look good on this one.
Interesting way to not accuse him of lying, and a typical tactic of a polygrapher. Point out an error in their logic, and they suggest you are a liar. Reminds me of my second polygraph with agency #3.