Normal Topic What is the % rate of poly failures? (Read 3407 times)
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box stan blovosky
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What is the % rate of poly failures?
May 25th, 2004 at 10:48pm
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Just curious if anyone has a good idea of the percentage of false positives on a poly, or the percentage of failures in general.
  
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: What is the % rate of poly failures?
Reply #1 - May 29th, 2004 at 7:23am
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Polygraph failure rates vary widely depending on the agency and polygraph program involved. For example, the failure rate for the Department of Defense's counterintelligence-scope screening program is very low: it seems the only persons who "fail" are those who make substantive admissions. By contrast, the failure rate for the FBI's pre-employment screening program is about 50%. But the failure rate for the FBI counterintelligence-scope screening program (of current employees) is reportedly close to 1%.
  

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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box Abraham
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Re: What is the % rate of poly failures?
Reply #2 - Jun 5th, 2004 at 9:24am
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George:

No offense, but I believe that you failed to address the part of his question concerning "false positives".  Could you please address that if you would be so kind.

Thank you,
Abe
  
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: What is the % rate of poly failures?
Reply #3 - Jun 5th, 2004 at 11:33am
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Abe,

I don't know what the false positive rates of any particular polygraph screening programs are. Determining a false positive rate would be difficult because those who "fail" typically cannot prove they didn't lie (one cannot prove a negative). In addition, agencies that rely on polygraph screening don't publish estimated false positive rates.

However, one can reasonably infer that an agency's false positive rate will be directly proportional to the overall failure rate and inversely proportional to the base rate of guilt among the population being screened for a particular behavior.
  

George W. Maschke
I am generally available in the chat room from 3 AM to 3 PM Eastern time.
Tel/SMS: 1-202-810-2105 (Please use Signal Private Messenger or WhatsApp to text or call.)
E-mail/iMessage/FaceTime: antipolygraph.org@protonmail.com
Wire: @ap_org
Threema: A4PYDD5S
Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"
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What is the % rate of poly failures?

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