Saidme wrote on Jul 15
th, 2003 at 7:57pm:
s-X-e
You wrote:
Based on the claims of many on this website, polygraph basically has no shred of validity. Why would you rely on past information provided by pro-polygraph organizations? Wouldn't it be more prudent to start from scratch.
The NAS was charged with determining the validity of polygraphy. This requires an objective analysis of
all available information. Whether or not the people here, on this board, believe that the polygraph is invalid does not automatically mean that the NAS does, and should not do a comprehensive review of the available evidence provided by
both sides. Asking the NAS to conduct their own study is like asking a jury to conduct their own investigation of a crime instead of letting the defense and prosecution present their cases.
Quote:If a research team is going to draw conclusions from their study, shouldn't it be their study?
It was their study. They did the interviews, they reviewed the research, and it was
their conclusions. To say that they should have done their own experiments is almost admitting that the information provided in support of polygraphy should not have been accepted as credible.
Quote:How could they draw conclusions on other researchers information unless they duplicated the process.
Why would you need to duplicate the process in order to review the results of someone else's experiment?
Quote:I think you guys like to use the term empirical evidence. In fact I think they (NAS) cited one of the polygraph studies as "flawed." Was it flawed because they tried to duplicate the study? Unfortunately that wasn't the case.
The executive summary of the NAS' findings state why the studies were flawed.
Quote:"The quality of studies varies considerably, but falls far short of what is desirable. Laboratory studies suffer from lack of realism, and in the randomized controlled studies focused on specific incidents using mock crimes, the consequences associated with lying or being judged deceptive almost never mirror the seriousness of these actions in real-world settings in which the polygraph is used. Field studies have major problems with identifying the truth against which test results should be judged. In addition, they suffer from problems associated with heterogeneity and lack of control of extraneous factors and more generally, they have lower quality than could be achieved with careful study design. Moreover, most of the research, in both the laboratory and in the field, does not fully address key potential threats to validity. For these reasons, study results cannot be expected to generalize to practical contexts."
So no, the study was not flawed because it wasn't duplicated. It was flawed because of the reasons quoted above.
Quote:If I'm not mistaken, the NAS did not seek any assistance from DODPI. I'm not 100% on that but I believe that to be the case. Maybe someone from DODPI could chime in on that.
Andy Ryan, Chief of Research, for the DoDPI made a presentation to the NAS. I believe several people from the DOE spoke as well.
Quote:Most who fail know the answer. They were deceptive. I will concede there are a few exceptions to the rule. Nothing is 100%.
While many who fail may have been deceptive, without any scientific validity (which you claim isn't important), you can't say that they failed
because they were deceptive. The conclusions drawn by the NAS seem to indicate that an unacceptable number of people still fail while being truthful (more than "a few exceptions"). Deceptive examinees who employ countermeasures may increase their chances of passing as well.
Quote:Regarding the scientists who conducted the study. Is it your belief that no way, no how they could be biased?
Sure, it could have been, but I see no evidence to indicate it was. Since when did "could be" become conclusive evidence to support that kind of claim?
Quote:What if the study were conducted by polygraph examiners? Would you find it flawed? Would you believe there could be bias? Of course you would.
If you are assuming that I would immediately find the study flawed simply by virtue of it being conducted by polygraph examiners, then no, that would not be correct. I would have to review their study, their methods, and the support for their conclusions before reaching that decision. As far as bias goes, I
would probably be inclined to believe that studies conducted by polygraphers are more likely to be done for the purpose of validating polygraphy rather than determining its validity (whether or not I believe that might be the case however,
does not mean it is true). If I were to make such a claim, I would have to support it with my own evidence.
Quote:Let's not throw rocks about speculation. There's enough of that going on from both sides.
Where did I speculate?
Quote:Regarding the study, I put no validity (there's that word again) in their findings. They didn't do any research. They regurgitated previously reported information.
Actually, they reviewed evidence provided by both sides and provided their own conclusions on it. That is hardly regurgitation. That you want them to start from makes me think maybe you yourself do not have faith in the evidence the polygraph community may have provided. If that is not the case, then why wouldn't it be OK for them to use it?