Molly Bish disappeared 3 years ago from her lifeguard stand in Warren, Mass.
Recently a bathing suit was found that is thought to be hers, and the profilers think that the crime was committed by a local man.
 
''This was a hometown guy, and he knows the area,'' said John Kelly, a clinical social worker and forensic examiner who runs a profiling firm. ''This isn't some guy who pulled in off the interchange, grabbed her, and just went to this remote place. No way.''

Trouble is, the District Attorney's office can't figure out who to go after. Why? Because the "magic box" has given them too many suspects! 

"Worcester District Attorney John Conte said last week that authorities have suspects in mind, and he acknowledged that 11 people have failed polygraph tests during the investigation."

Are we to believe that there are 11 people who have complicity in this crime? 11 people who have managed to keep there mouths shut for 3 years? Not even remotely likely. It is apparent that even the "specific incident" polygraph has some serious flaws.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/146/metro/Predator_is_eyed_in_Bish_case+.shtml

suethem,

I assume you meant to say "what if the future defendant is not one of the eleven?"

Apparently ten, if not all eleven, of these people are innocent. And we don't know how many other people were tested who "passed".

For the sake of argument, lets assume that one of the eleven is the perpetrator. That means that ten of the polygraphs resulted in an error. Do you realize that if what the pro-poly crowd says is true (98% accuracy on incident-specific exams) then the Warren PD had to polygraph 500 people to get an error on 10 tests? Warren has a total population of 4,776 people, and 1,797 are males over the age of 14.

Are we to believe that they polygraphed 28% of the teen and adult male population of this town?

Oh, and the Warren PD consists of a Chief, 1 detective, 4 full-time officers, six part-time officers and a clerk. Looks like maybe the clerk does double-duty as a professional polygrapher. And who knows, maybe she is a Canuck.

Guys,

I'm baaacck. For a little while anyways. Had to come back and help the lovely wife get things ready for our 50th. wedding anniversary bash.

This is further evidence for my research in my belief that "subject matter that triggers anger, and yes fear, in innocent polygraph examinees will show deception on the relavant questions. In the stated case here, at least 10 of the 11 are false +s because they were severely affected by the subject matter.

A while back in another thread, I asked questions concerning this issue and neither the pro-polys or the anti-polys touched them. I did receive a couple of private e-mails. One, I know is a polygrapher, the other knew too much about the polygraph not to be one. One wholeheartedly concurring with my views. The other almost, with a qualification regarding the analog v computer methodology. This one said that the reason I didn't get a response to my questions is: the pro-polys know but classifies this a secret and the anti-polys don't know enough about the polygraph to answer.

This fall, after the mining season, I will begin my research (at my own expense) in earnest. I and others will be taking polygraphs, interviews with medical professionals, etc. When the research is over, I will write a paper for publication. 

I wonder if the expense of this research is a deduction?

Batman: If it is, I may not be able to pay your salary next year. dig dig. Pushing your arm , you know.

Twoblock

Twoblock wrote on May 27^th, 2003 at 5:51am:


Twoblock, 

Good to have you back in here.  I recently proposed, jokingly, that the polygraph outght to also test bloodf temperature.  It is a rare ocurrence when my blood boils, but during my polygraph (both days), when my loyalty to my nation was questioned, I did everything I could to NOT put the polygrapher's nose in the back of his head.

When you are in the military, you learn about selfless service.  You wear a nametag that says "US" on it, and if you are lucky, you get to wear the American flag on your sleeve.  To have someone then question my loyalty to our nation generated some emotions that I don't think I have ever or will ever feel again.

To have him sit there, next to another Agent nodding in agreement,  and tell me he truly believed that I slept with Bosnain women and gave them US classified information in return for sex, well,  that brought up these emotions, ones that I can only describe as "indescribable."  But knowing that my future FBI career was also being jeopardized by this literally put me in a state of shock.  (I went pale and started shaking, and it was so bad they went and got me a donut to bring up my blood sugar).

And to top it off, the thoughts of a Federal Agent accusing me, a former intelligence officer with a TS clearance,  of espionage, a crime which carries the death penalty, well, those thoughts were running all through my head.  Couple those with the polygrapher questioning my loyalty, integrity, and patriotism, well you have and very combustible emotional cocktail.

Think that might have skewed the charts in the polygrapher's favor?  Is that why he needed 2 days with me, to generate the strip he needed to fail me?  Any pro-poly's want to answer that, or am I revealing an MO on how to fail an applicant that is clean?

Quote:


Twoblock, I applaud your efforts in wanting to research this subject, because I feel it is very important.  But, from my polygraph experience, I can tell you that no lab experiment will ever reproduce the feelings and emotions that I went through on those two days.   

Happy 50th,

Chris


PS -- I'm not trying to slam the FBI for having donuts around the office, like the old "cops and donuts" jokes.  The SAC for the FO was changing that day, so they were having a mini party, hence, donuts.

It's amazing to me that things like this (11 people "failing") don't just reach out and slap all these pro-poly people with a big ol' dose of reality. I wonder if any of them are beginning to panic at the thought of having to find a new fraud...uhhh...I mean "job" after years of masquerading as "investigators". This, of course, is not directed toward detectives and legitimate investigators, only those who make their living solely by administering these "tests".


PK

Twoblock,

I don't think there is any controversy over whether such emotional states as anger, fear, anxiety, or embarassment can produce reactions measurable by the polygraph (not just cardio reactions, but also breathing and skin conductance). They certainly can.

The problem, as Professor John J. Furedy has observed, is that the polygraph is "virtually useless for differentiating the anxious-but-innocent person from the anxious-and-guilty one."

Twoblock,
Link to most of Dr. Furedy's relevant works, in case you need it.

http://www.psych.utoronto.ca/~furedy/

Assuming the facts as publicly reported are accurate and unless one is willing to postulate that this case involves a conspiracy of at least eleven people, this becomes one more example of why concealed information tests should be the bread and butter of those seeking instrumental evidence of suspect involvement in criminal matters under investigation.  This is but one of many cases that have happened and will continue to happen (i.e., result in apparent absurdities) with so-called control question tests (CQTs).  The whole town can quite easily react to the consequences surrounding being asked about their individual invovlement in a crime but only the perpetrator(s) of a crime should react in a statistically significant fashion to properly chosen concealed information items.  The sort of thing that is seen in Agatha Christie's Murder on the Orient Express (i.e., everybody dun it) should largely be left to the realm of fiction and not brought into and left confusing real criminal investigations...