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Very Hot Topic (More than 25 Replies) Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Case? (Read 27086 times)
Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #30 - Mar 15th, 2003 at 1:39pm
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NoLieGuy,

Before addressing your post, I'd like to welcome you to the AntiPolygraph.org message board. You might wish to consider becoming a registered user. This will allow you to go back and edit your posts after posting them, to optionally receive e-mail notification when replies are posted to message threads in which you have posted, and to exchange private messages with other registered users.

You write in part:

Quote:
In the Smart case You / We are working with what little information has been released thus far, and not the complete information in what took place and the findings of all of the tests done.  Further, Although the public has a right to know such things, it is only after a case has gone to trial or a claim that it has been solved that such information is released.


You make a very good point. We are indeed working with limited, and sometimes contradictory, information. However, I think it is still possible to make some logical inferences, for example, that the Salt Lake City police relied on the polygraph as more than simply an interrogatory prop.

Quote:
At some point you really have to take a step back, look at yourself and ask why, as an academic, you have become so obsessed with this polygraph thing.  One has to wonder in your specific case where you claimed they told you that you failed such a test; whether you would have met the security clearance criteria under the Psyche exam given your level of obsessive behavior.  Could your foreign travels also have played a part in your being assessed as not the most desireable candidate ?  There are only so many openings in such agencies which you applied for, so why should we assume that you were otherwise the best qualified despite your polygraph result ?  Did you get a private sector retest prior to your commitment to countermeasures ?


I don't believe my personal experience is relevant to the issue(s) at hand. If you believe that anything I've said or written is untrue or misleading, please don't hesitate to point it out.

You also write:

Quote:
It is a shame to see such an academic mind concentrate on the negative, rather than use your mind to improve such a system or replace it with something better.  You have only criticisms and no solutions; the lowest form of academic participation.


I disagree. CQT polygraphy is a pseudoscientific fraud. Misplaced reliance on it has caused and continues to cause serious harm to individuals, national security, and public safety. Exposing this fraud, and ending it, is a worthy goal in and of itself.

Quote:
I was also wondering, why would such a prestigious organization as the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory put their efforts and software scoring program in this field if they could not validate it and/or make it reliable ?


I believe that Anonymous has adequately addressed this point above.

Quote:
Doesn't the forward movement of technology, as added to the polygraph hardware and software, make your arguments weaker with each passing addition.  Surely there are too many confirmed D.I. and N.D.I. charts, vs. False Positives or False Negatives, not to give this profession merit to the realm of statistical significance.


No. Polygraph results have no statistical significance, because CQT polygraphy has no grounding in the scientific method: it is completely lacking in both standardization and meaningful control. It is not a valid diagnostic test. (See Chapter 1 of The Lie Behind the Lie Detector and the sources cited there.)

Quote:
Doesn't guilty knowledge / peak of tension type testing on elements of the crime, unknown to all but the perpetrator and police, act as a clear indicated [sic] to the point of lottery odds in it being any other person in such a case ?


The Guilty Knowledge Test (GKT) and the Peak of Tension Test (POT) are qualitatively different from the "Control" Question "Test," and I believe that in some cases, it may be possible to draw logical inferences from GKT and POT results. These techniques are, however, vulnerable to countermeasures.

Quote:
In short, give credit where credit is due, weed out any unprofessional types as with any other profession, and let's get on with solving cases with this and other valuable investigative tools !!!!!!!!


The problem of CQT polygraphy is not so much "unprofessional types" as the fact that the entire methodology is without validity.
  

George W. Maschke
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #31 - Mar 15th, 2003 at 1:53pm
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Quote:

Undecided IS GEORGE MASCHE BEING PAID TO LEAD THE FIGHT TO PROHIBIT THE POLYGRAPH? (MAYBE BY THE BRAIN WAVE GUY)

I Also believe "THAT IT'S IMPORTANT NOT TO JUMP TO CONCLUSIONS" that is why this is a question rather than a statement!  However if some malcontent or rumor monger wants to jump on the bandwgon or soapbox and spread a story about George accepting money from D.R. for his "free" services, that is not my fault or my intent I am merely posing a question....


For the record, neither I nor anyone else associated with AntiPolygraph.org are being paid in cash or in kind for our efforts to expose and end polygraph waste, fraud, and abuse.
  

George W. Maschke
I am generally available in the chat room from 3 AM to 3 PM Eastern time.
Tel/SMS: 1-202-810-2105 (Please use Signal Private Messenger or WhatsApp to text or call.)
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Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box orolan
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #32 - Mar 15th, 2003 at 4:09pm
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Batman,

Since we aren't actually conducting a real investigation, we will now need to make some assumptions. Possibly the abductor warned the sister not to tell and she was afraid. Doubtful though that he said anything to her. More than likely, the poor girl was just terrified. But we can't discount the possibility that she is lying to protect her sister.
We find no evidence in the house that indicated Elizabeth had some problems. No notes in her diary about possible sexual abuse, no references to "my life sucks". No e-mails that indicate a possible plan to run away with some guy she met in a chat room. Her parents say she didn't have a boyfriend. Or maybe she did. If so,  we go talk to him. We also talk to her girlfriends. Girls tell each other everything (I know, I have 3 teenage daughters myself). Has she met any strangers, did she meet a cute guy at the skating rink Friday night, etc.
We're now running a two-pronged investigation, resources are being pulled from the case, the media is all over it, and my Captain says to get my ..s down to headquarters because he wants answers NOW. I have to make a decision, and it better be the right one. 
At this point,  I feel an abduction is the most plausible situation. The sister's two hours of silence is the only thread connected to a runaway at this time. Mr. Smart is a millionaire, so ransom is a viable motive. I have a team bring out the bloodhounds to try and track the route taken away from the house. I have the parents interviewed again, seeking information on anybody that would be familiar with the layout of the house, the Smart's habits, etc. Concentrate on handymen, the lawn guy, the pool guy, the appliance repair man that fixed the Viking range last week, etc. We need to know who these people are, and we need to know where they are. Limit the questioning to the last six months for now.
  

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." &&U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #33 - Mar 15th, 2003 at 11:57pm
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Orolan,

Lots of interviews to do, not much time to do them.  Have to go on the worse case scenario theory.  Have to assume Elizabeth has been abducted.  But you also have to rely on statistical information.  Statistically, when a child is either missing, injured, assaulted, or killed the subject is most likely either a family member, or known to the Victim.  We can probably rule out the younger sister, and any other younger siblings, however we have to look at the parents and any close relatives or family friends, primarily males.  The best thing to do is attempt to eliminate as many people from suspicion as quickly as we can while at the same time running other logical leads.  Bringing in dogs may help, but I'm not real familiar with how successful that particular technique has been of late in finding abducted children.  Reason being, most likely if Elizabeth was abducted she was taken to a vehicle not far from the house, so the dogs will only lead us to the curb.  Still worth a try, you don't want to pass up any opportunity.   

Lets jump ahead just a bit.  We've done all the interviews, nothing really relevant has turned up except that we've identifed people who have worked around the house, etc...  Unfortunately we have not had any luck actually turning up hard information as to where Elizabeth is.  We're facing the real possibility that she may be dying or dead.  We need to start getting information, any way we can, and fast.  One particular interview, the handyman (Ricci) shows promise because he is evasive in a lot of his answers.  We're also getting bad vibes from the uncle.  He's reluctant to be forth coming with his assistance, and is making noises that the family may stop cooperating.  He's going to the press, making our job a lot more difficult.

Do we turn to polygraph?  If so who do we polygraph and why?  What do we ask?  Or do we not utilize polygraph?  If not, then what's next?  We may be looking down a dead end street right now, and we're no closer to finding Elizabeth.  Now the heat is really on, we're in day three!

Batman
  
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #34 - Mar 16th, 2003 at 2:35am
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Batman,

I would have been happy (following your fictional account) if law enforcement had used polygraph on day one let alone day three as long as the examination(s) was restricted to concealed information testing.  Although Ricci (and other family members, workers, staff, etc) would have been familiar with the victim's home he should not have known (had appropriate investigation been conducted and information properly protected by law enforcement) from which room she was abducted, what she was wearing, etc unless he was involved in the abduction. Ricci and others could have been eliminated (as much as is possible with any polygraph exam) as suspects rather quickly and not have endured the hell described by various family members who must have been subjected to lie tests of one sort or another.    Because he (Ricci) was the subject of national attention and was de facto already convicted of kidnapping/abduction in the eyes of the national media via an admission of burglary, there was no way he could have been given a control question test absent his fear of the consequences associated with his having been found deceptive on a lie test.  Again, no problem with polygraph, and, in fact, sooner is better than later, just do it right!
  
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box orolan
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #35 - Mar 16th, 2003 at 4:46am
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Batman,

OK. It is true that family members are first on the list of suspects, followed by those that know the layout and routines of the household. Suspecting the parents is a very long shot in this case. The odds of the sister not recognizing her father are slim, and the timeline is entirely too short. If the father did it, and he put her in the car and took her somewhere, then somebody in the house would have heard the car either leaving or coming back. Either the sister or the mother. If he didn't take her in the car, then the dogs have already found her.
So I've eliminated the parents, at least temporarily. So we turn our attention to the uncle. Does he have an alibi? Any reasonable suspicions about him? We can't just make him a suspect because he thinks we're botching the investigation. Assuming no verifiable alibi, we can question him further. We need something a lot stronger than lack of cooperation to justify making him a suspect. What do we have? 
We also have this handyman, Ricci. He's a real piece of work. Evasive, nervous, no verifiable alibi, knowledge of the house and people in it. And he has priors along with an outstanding warrant. Assume that we searched his house and truck, and we found nothing related to Elizabeth. We quickly realize that he may have been responsible for the burglary a few months ago, so we zero in on that. He says he didn't do it, so we ask him to submit to a polygraph. An incident-specific poly, about the burglary only, for now. We could do a GKT, if we have a qualified operator, about Elizabeth. Are we on the right track?
  

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." &&U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #36 - Mar 16th, 2003 at 5:35am
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Wow Batman I'm soooooo impressed. Did you get all this info from just reading the paper? You should be a detective. Or maybe you got all this info from the news. Either way we all know that both are usually 100% accurate.
Very good
  
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box orolan
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #37 - Mar 16th, 2003 at 5:06pm
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DetJIM,

This is an exercise, not a recounting of the actual events. At this point nobody really knows what happened. If you can't supply any constructive ideas or opinions, kindly take your remarks elsewhere.
  

"Most of the things worth doing in the world had been declared impossible before they were done." &&U.S. Supreme Court Justice Louis D. Brandeis
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Paste Member Name in Quick Reply Box George W. Maschke
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Re: Did Polygraph Misdirect the Elizabeth Smart Ca
Reply #38 - Mar 17th, 2003 at 8:16am
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For more background on the Smart kidnapping investigation, see Salt Lake Tribune staff writers Kevin Cantera and Michael Vigh's 12 March 2003 article, "Smarts Frustrated with Police Progress." It was published just before Elizabeth Smart was found.
  

George W. Maschke
I am generally available in the chat room from 3 AM to 3 PM Eastern time.
Tel/SMS: 1-202-810-2105 (Please use Signal Private Messenger or WhatsApp to text or call.)
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Threema: A4PYDD5S
Personal Statement: "Too Hot of a Potato"
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