False + (5/09/01 at 16:59:14) wrote:


Quote:

I'm curious to get your opinion on the ongoing NAS Polygraph study. 1. Do you have any opinion as to what the study's conclusion will basically be? 2. Will the conclusion of the study bear any impact at all on how you view polygraphy? Would you view polygraphy any differently if the study essentially says the premises of polygraph analysis are scientifically invalid? 3. Do you think those who claim to be victims of incorrect polygraph results all fit into the reported 0.1% of error rate? Or do you think that the vast totality of those claiming to be judged in error are making it up?

1.  I won't second guess what conclusions they will reach or how they express them.  They have world class reputations.  I'm confident they will take a fresh look at the data and the issues within the scientific literature.  I do not know to what extent they will solicit information from the polygraph community, observe real world examinations, etc.  I do not know how they will weigh or resolve the various conflicting data and viewpoints.  I will be rather surprised if they don't contribute some fresh insights to the literature.  Anything new they have to say will benefit society.

2.  Of course it will affect my knowledge of the polygraph.  I strive to be open minded and incorporate all new information into the way I view the polygraph.  Would I reverse my views if they conclude it doesn't work better than chance?  Not unless they make a far more persuasive case than the critics have thus far; there is just too much evidence that it works far better than chance.

3.  The false positive rate varies from one type of exam to another.  It is probably lower in security screening than it is in criminal investigation, and vice versa.  Certainly, some who claim they were false positives, are lying.  Others are not.  I don't pretend to know what the ratio is.  I'm sure there are many variables affect it.  One is how one defines an error.  This is a variable seldom discussed, but I'm convinced it is an important one and worthy of serious discussion.

Peace.