stopnik wrote on Dec 20^th, 2002 at 6:45pm:

What I don’t understand is where the heck integrity fits into a polygraph examination? How does it accurately predict who has integrity and who doesn’t?

Dear stopnik,

You bewilderment is justified because there are not any scientific means to predict future behavior.  The NAS study has confirmed that polygraph screening as used in employment examinations by itself has no better ability to predict future spies or security risk than chance guessing (actually even less than chance when you acknowledge that only a small percentage of applicants would be spies to begin with). The polygraph examination has nothing to do with being able to predict behavior.  The examination has everything to do with trying to elicit confessions concerning past behavior.

Regards.