Thanks George. Wonder if they'll have anything "new", or just a rehash of what is already known.

The CBS news program 48 Hours will be covering the Molly Bish case tonight (Wed., 3 Dec. 2003):

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2003/12/01/48hours/main586143.shtml

My thanks to Drew, George and especially to David Lykken for his generous offer.

The file Drew mentioned is now available for download:

"The Body on the Stairs: A Pedagogical Detective Story" (2.2 mb PDF) by David Thoreson Lykken. Chapter 21 of A Tremor in the Blood: Uses and Abuses of the Lie Detector, 1st edition, New York: McGraw-Hill, 1981.

This chapter is not included in the 2nd edition of A Tremor in the Blood. It was very kind of Professor Lykken to grant permission for it to be made available on-line.

Orolon,

With regard to my previous post:

Quote:


I spoke with David Lykken who indicated he would send me a pdf file containing the aforementioned fictional account which he is willing to provide to this site for its posting/publication.  I expect to receive the file in the near future and will make it available shortly thereafter.

Orolan,

Although somewhat difficult to find (now out of print), David Lykken's first edition text A Tremor in the Blood (1981) in chapters 20 through 22 (the middle chapter being a fairly detailed account of a fictional crime, investigated and examined via a GKT exam) is probably the best overall explanation and example written for a general audience.  There are, of course, numerous reports in the scientific literature for those with a more technical background and interest.  Because the aforementioned text is no longer being sold, I will check with David regarding what he would suggest for those who might be interested in obtaining the material I refer to.

orolan wrote on Jun 18^th, 2003 at 5:30am:


There is a book called "The handbook of polygraphy", edited by Kleiner (Academic Press, 2002) , that has a good chapter on CIT (aka GKT), by a Japanese practitioner. According to him, the Japanese polygraphy community uses CIT's almost exclusively, stating that many polygraphers have never even seen a CQT.

I think a lot of the problem is one of background and training. CIT's are a more recent invention and were adopted in Japan as there wasn't the inertia of a pre-existing polygraph infrastructure. CIT's are useless for screening but great for specific incident situations where details are not widely known. I think polygraphers are missing the boat by not training in the CIT in this country. You don't have the problem of >50% of the people failing those.

-Marty

Drew,
Under the circumstances I would expect no more than a speculative answer on the subject. It is highly likely at this point that luck is going to play the biggest part in solving this case. 
As you said, the GKT most likely would have performed much better than the CQT had it been used in the early stages of the investigation.
On the subject of the GKT, where would one find informative discourses on its pros, cons and best uses? The subject interests me and I know just enough about it to end up putting my foot in my mouth.

Orolan,

Because I have not spoken with those investigating the matter, anything I might say in answer to your two questions other than 'I don't know" would be idle speculation.  I would hope proper planning, well executed investigation and/or good luck would lead to an affirmative answer to both questions...

Drew,
Do you think at this stage that a viable suite of GKT questions could be formulated for this case? Do you think the police have enough facts that haven't been given out to the media?

Assuming the facts as publicly reported are accurate and unless one is willing to postulate that this case involves a conspiracy of at least eleven people, this becomes one more example of why concealed information tests should be the bread and butter of those seeking instrumental evidence of suspect involvement in criminal matters under investigation.  This is but one of many cases that have happened and will continue to happen (i.e., result in apparent absurdities) with so-called control question tests (CQTs).  The whole town can quite easily react to the consequences surrounding being asked about their individual invovlement in a crime but only the perpetrator(s) of a crime should react in a statistically significant fashion to properly chosen concealed information items.  The sort of thing that is seen in Agatha Christie's Murder on the Orient Express (i.e., everybody dun it) should largely be left to the realm of fiction and not brought into and left confusing real criminal investigations...

A quote from District Attorney Conte's press conference yesterday afternoon:

"The district attorney said his investigators have already started the investigation's second phase. ''We are going to be interviewing, reinterviewing people,'' he said. ''We're going to ask certain people to take the lie detector test.''
He also acknowledged that 11 of 20 people who have taken the test failed it. ''Quite honestly, I'm quite skeptical about lie detector tests,'' he said. ''However, we do use them as an investigative tool.''"

Twoblock,
Link to most of Dr. Furedy's relevant works, in case you need it.

http://www.psych.utoronto.ca/~furedy/

Thanks George

I have not read any publication by Prof. Furedy. I have seen references to him here, but I don't remember the content. Maybe I should do more reading research before I go half-cocked into something that has already been determined. A couple of times my impulsiveness has caused me to appear a little dumb.

It looks as if my efforts should be redirected toward bringing this data to the fore.

Twoblock,

I don't think there is any controversy over whether such emotional states as anger, fear, anxiety, or embarassment can produce reactions measurable by the polygraph (not just cardio reactions, but also breathing and skin conductance). They certainly can.

The problem, as Professor John J. Furedy has observed, is that the polygraph is "virtually useless for differentiating the anxious-but-innocent person from the anxious-and-guilty one."

Thanks guys for the good wishes. It's been a fantastic 50 years with this gal even though, occasionally, I'd like to slap her around a bit.  Just kidding.

Chris

I have been knocked out of lucrative mining deals by crooked sob's, however I have been able to continue in my chosen profession. I am not saying that the crooks  got off scott free. I can't imagine the hurt of being barred from my profession by scullduggery. I'm afraid I would have to pop a cap at who caused it.  From reading posts here, apparently one's LE goals are destroyed by a failed polygraph because the information is passed to all agencies therefore blacklisting the applicant. Do I detect a shade of McCarthism? It angers me that one man and one machine, with no other evidence, has such power.

As to the research, I think I have designed a program that will prove/disprove my theory that anger, fear, etc. of a subject will affect the BP and cardio as well as guilt.

I am really supprised that I haven't gotten feedback, for or against, on my theory. Pro and con discussion would have helped determine my direction. However, I will go with what I have.

No-Poly

You can send me a private email through this site. Then I will have a way to contact you when I am ready to go.

It's amazing to me that things like this (11 people "failing") don't just reach out and slap all these pro-poly people with a big ol' dose of reality. I wonder if any of them are beginning to panic at the thought of having to find a new fraud...uhhh...I mean "job" after years of masquerading as "investigators". This, of course, is not directed toward detectives and legitimate investigators, only those who make their living solely by administering these "tests".


PK

Two block,

I'd be happy to assist in your research. I have a good story you could include in your book.

Twoblock wrote on May 27^th, 2003 at 5:51am:


Twoblock, 

Good to have you back in here.  I recently proposed, jokingly, that the polygraph outght to also test bloodf temperature.  It is a rare ocurrence when my blood boils, but during my polygraph (both days), when my loyalty to my nation was questioned, I did everything I could to NOT put the polygrapher's nose in the back of his head.

When you are in the military, you learn about selfless service.  You wear a nametag that says "US" on it, and if you are lucky, you get to wear the American flag on your sleeve.  To have someone then question my loyalty to our nation generated some emotions that I don't think I have ever or will ever feel again.

To have him sit there, next to another Agent nodding in agreement,  and tell me he truly believed that I slept with Bosnain women and gave them US classified information in return for sex, well,  that brought up these emotions, ones that I can only describe as "indescribable."  But knowing that my future FBI career was also being jeopardized by this literally put me in a state of shock.  (I went pale and started shaking, and it was so bad they went and got me a donut to bring up my blood sugar).

And to top it off, the thoughts of a Federal Agent accusing me, a former intelligence officer with a TS clearance,  of espionage, a crime which carries the death penalty, well, those thoughts were running all through my head.  Couple those with the polygrapher questioning my loyalty, integrity, and patriotism, well you have and very combustible emotional cocktail.

Think that might have skewed the charts in the polygrapher's favor?  Is that why he needed 2 days with me, to generate the strip he needed to fail me?  Any pro-poly's want to answer that, or am I revealing an MO on how to fail an applicant that is clean?

Quote:


Twoblock, I applaud your efforts in wanting to research this subject, because I feel it is very important.  But, from my polygraph experience, I can tell you that no lab experiment will ever reproduce the feelings and emotions that I went through on those two days.   

Happy 50th,

Chris


PS -- I'm not trying to slam the FBI for having donuts around the office, like the old "cops and donuts" jokes.  The SAC for the FO was changing that day, so they were having a mini party, hence, donuts.

TwoBlock,
Good to see you back. Your sentiments regarding this issue are the same as mine. For some reason, at least ten of these people had a strong reaction to the questions. Could it be they reacted in righteous indignation to being a suspect? Could it be that the mere thought of the crime caused them to react with revulsion? Perhaps they feared that the polygraph would finger them in spite of their innocence?
For whatever reasons, it is quite obvious that some reason other than lying caused the physiological responses that were measured and scored as deception. This case is near the top of the list in questioning the validity of polygraphs.
BTW, Happy 50th to you and your wife

Guys,

I'm baaacck. For a little while anyways. Had to come back and help the lovely wife get things ready for our 50th. wedding anniversary bash.

This is further evidence for my research in my belief that "subject matter that triggers anger, and yes fear, in innocent polygraph examinees will show deception on the relavant questions. In the stated case here, at least 10 of the 11 are false +s because they were severely affected by the subject matter.

A while back in another thread, I asked questions concerning this issue and neither the pro-polys or the anti-polys touched them. I did receive a couple of private e-mails. One, I know is a polygrapher, the other knew too much about the polygraph not to be one. One wholeheartedly concurring with my views. The other almost, with a qualification regarding the analog v computer methodology. This one said that the reason I didn't get a response to my questions is: the pro-polys know but classifies this a secret and the anti-polys don't know enough about the polygraph to answer.

This fall, after the mining season, I will begin my research (at my own expense) in earnest. I and others will be taking polygraphs, interviews with medical professionals, etc. When the research is over, I will write a paper for publication. 

I wonder if the expense of this research is a deduction?

Batman: If it is, I may not be able to pay your salary next year. dig dig. Pushing your arm , you know.

Twoblock

Orolan,

I was thinking that a defense lawyer could use the polygraph results to cast a shadow of doubt...

If the polygraph is 98% Accurate then obviously his client did not act alone and/or may have knowledge about the events, but not have commited the act himself.  It would help to point the finger at someone else or at least away from the defendant.  -Use the LE's own 'test' against them.  If other evidence (beside the polygraph)does indeed point to someone who has failed, I think that this tactic could deflect some of the blame....

Maybe I should stop watching all those legal shows on t.v., but it seems to me that evidence that is open to interpretation can back fire on a prosecutor or investigator and end up giving the defense an edge.

Anyway...

Looks like the Warren PD's confession prop failed.  Nobody caved (if the criminal is even in the group 'tested').  Maybe there will be a round two, three, four.... Hey if the polygrapher works for himself (private), why not ring up the charges!  Justice is a business after all.

As for those who passed, I am sure that Warren PD has not ruled them out---yeah right!!!

I will be interested to see if any polygraphers come back with an explanation of this episode of 'voodoo justice.'

suethem,

I assume you meant to say "what if the future defendant is not one of the eleven?"

Apparently ten, if not all eleven, of these people are innocent. And we don't know how many other people were tested who "passed".

For the sake of argument, lets assume that one of the eleven is the perpetrator. That means that ten of the polygraphs resulted in an error. Do you realize that if what the pro-poly crowd says is true (98% accuracy on incident-specific exams) then the Warren PD had to polygraph 500 people to get an error on 10 tests? Warren has a total population of 4,776 people, and 1,797 are males over the age of 14.

Are we to believe that they polygraphed 28% of the teen and adult male population of this town?

Oh, and the Warren PD consists of a Chief, 1 detective, 4 full-time officers, six part-time officers and a clerk. Looks like maybe the clerk does double-duty as a professional polygrapher. And who knows, maybe she is a Canuck.

Orolan,

Was the polygrapher Canadian?- that's an old FBI excuse for incorrect results.

What happens if the future defendant turns out to be one of the eleven? If polygraphy is accurate, then he has cast a shadow of doubt to me. 

How could they all fail and not have participated?  Better arrest them all and charge everyone!

In the Stephanie Crow murder case, in Escondido CA, police ignored reports of a homeless drifter in the area the night of the murder.  They focused their attention on the victim's brother after he was told he failed a CVSA- polygraph, and was pushed by police into confessing.

In an interesting twist, a neighbor told the victims parents about the drifter.  The police knew about him, but did not pursue him because they had a confession from the victim's brother.

Finally, using the press to goad the police into actually doing an investigation, the drifter was located and found to have a sweatshirt with the victim's blood on it. 

Oops-- now the police have charged the drifter!!- Sorry mom and dad, we got the right guy now!  

Another example of complete trust in polygraphy!!!  

The profile doesn't fit the profile!!! 

Are all polygraphers Canadian?

 


 

Molly Bish disappeared 3 years ago from her lifeguard stand in Warren, Mass.
Recently a bathing suit was found that is thought to be hers, and the profilers think that the crime was committed by a local man.
 
''This was a hometown guy, and he knows the area,'' said John Kelly, a clinical social worker and forensic examiner who runs a profiling firm. ''This isn't some guy who pulled in off the interchange, grabbed her, and just went to this remote place. No way.''

Trouble is, the District Attorney's office can't figure out who to go after. Why? Because the "magic box" has given them too many suspects! 

"Worcester District Attorney John Conte said last week that authorities have suspects in mind, and he acknowledged that 11 people have failed polygraph tests during the investigation."

Are we to believe that there are 11 people who have complicity in this crime? 11 people who have managed to keep there mouths shut for 3 years? Not even remotely likely. It is apparent that even the "specific incident" polygraph has some serious flaws.

http://www.boston.com/dailyglobe2/146/metro/Predator_is_eyed_in_Bish_case+.shtml